United States President Donald Trump repeated his charge that the 2020 elections were “stolen” from him, in a speech on July 16, claiming to have documents that “reveal an election system so broken and so vulnerable that no one can possibly defend it”.
Trump claimed that “Hundreds of millions of US voter files are in the hands of foreign governments.”
“Our machines and ballot-counting systems are exposed to hacking and manipulation and corruption,” he said. "China and other countries have been trying to meddle in our elections.
“Evidence of fraud has been buried. Hundreds of thousands of non-citizens and dead people are listed and active on the voter rolls, and yet we still have elections with no voter ID, no proof of citizenship, and tens of millions of ballots floating aimlessly through the mail.”
Trump makes many such ridiculous assertions that he later changes — sometimes the next day — or just doesn’t refer to again. Only what he actually does matters.
If these charges are taken at face value, then how did Trump win the 2024 election?
Preparing the ground
There is no proof whatsoever that any foreign government, including China, has “meddled” in US elections to change votes, procedures or otherwise — except for the state of Israel. Through its lobbying arm, the American Israel Political Action Committee, the Israeli state has openly funded candidates in US elections for decades.
Trump is preparing the political ground for a campaign against the results of the November midterm elections — if they follow predictions that the Republican Party will lose its slim majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
All polls show that, in key races, the Democrats will win enough seats to gain a slim majority in the House and probably the Senate — if the elections are fair.
The major issue affecting voters is the economy. Trump’s inflationary policies, including his tariffs and the deeply unpopular war on Iran, have sent his approval ratings towards 30% — his hard-right, white, racist base. He is also dragging down other Republican candidates — who give him unqualified support — in the polls.
So, Trump and his administration are attempting to stop this likely result by reducing Democrat votes in the elections.
Voting rights gutted
He is aided in this venture by the right-wing majority in the Supreme Court, which in April gutted the last remaining clause of the 1965 Voting Rights Act won by the civil rights movement of the 1950s and ’60s.
In the former slave states of the South, the Civil War and Reconstruction established citizenship and voting rights of the Black former slaves, among other amendments to the constitution abolishing slavery.
At the end of Reconstruction, a counter-revolution developed that by 1880 had consolidated “Jim Crow” racial segregation that, in one or another guise, took away Black voting rights in the South. A central demand of the civil rights movement was to win Black voting rights.
The Supreme Court’s decision in April has allowed the Southern states to again take away Black political representation by redrawing electoral districts to ensure Republican majorities, as Blacks overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic Party.
The other recent Supreme Court decision allowed the president to take control of all independent federal agencies, including the Election Assistance Commission (EAC). This bipartisan independent agency was tasked with certifying voting systems and helping local election officials. Trump used his control to dismantle the EAC.
His key plan to disenfranchise African Americans and other people of colour, is to pass a law requiring people to prove their citizenship with a birth certificate or passport before they can vote.
Many voters do not have their birth certificate readily available, as they very seldom require it. Most do not have passports. This is especially true of these who must work for a living, and the poor. Blacks and Latinos would be most affected by such a law. Women who are registered to vote under their married names would also potentially be affected.
Trump’s law has been stymied in the Senate, much to his dismay.
Trump also wants the federal government to take over the functioning of elections, which the constitution reserves for the states.
The Department of Justice (DOJ) has filed legal proceedings to force about 30 states to turn over their voting rolls, so they can remove anyone they want from them. Half have refused, and the DOJ is threatening them with prosecution.
Trump also wants to curtail postal voting. Many people choose postal voting because they have difficulty getting to polling stations during work hours (the midterm elections take place on a Tuesday) or due to health problems, etc.
The postal service is threatening to not deliver postal votes in states that do not turn over their voting rolls to the federal government.
These and other measures aim to restrict voters who generally vote for the Democratic Party, such as workers, Blacks, Latinx and women.
What next?
While Trump won the votes of racist white workers in the last election, he is losing ground because of the economic squeeze on workers due to inflation caused by his policies.
Trump has also said he will deploy armed Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to oversee voting booths, which will limit the Latinx vote, and frighten other voters into staying away.
Some of Trump’s policies are likely to be challenged in court, and may be overturned.
In any case, Trump’s July 16 speech shows he is concerned about the result in November, and is preparing to declare that the elections were stolen, if the Republicans lose their majority.
After Trump lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden, he attempted to overturn the result by green-lighting his supporters' violent January 6 attack on Congress, to prevent it from approving the election results.
What Trump will do in November is uncertain, but this time he has consolidated control of the entire executive branch. He could unleash more violence, including with the military — unless it revolts — and stage a coup, installing himself as dictator, with some bourgeois democratic fig leaves.
The organised left must prepare now for this and any other possible outcome, and begin to organise workers, oppressed nationalities, women, youth and more against the war and Trump’s other harmful policies, and prepare to fight back with propaganda, organisation and mobilisation.