As I write this article, the situation in Bolivia seems to be heading toward a civil war provoked by the secessionist attitude of the oligarchies in Santa Cruz and the other departments of the Half Moon (Tarija, Pando and Beni — in resource-rich eastern Bolivia), the prefect of Cochabamba and maybe someone else who remains in the shadows.
The position of Evo Morales' government weakened after the failure of the talks with the separatist prefects (governors) and his refusal — very human but not very political — to call the people to the streets and prevent the partition of Bolivia into two nations, one rich, the other poor.
The defiance of the oligarchy in Santa Cruz, led by prefect Ruben Costas and the president of the so-called Civic Committee of Santa Cruz, Branco Marinkovic, is an unequivocal sign that they feel supported by powerful internal and external forces.
US role
It is no secret that the US ambassador to Bolivia, Philip S. Goldberg, is a specialist in the dismemberment of countries, an experience he acquired during his term in the former Yugoslavia. Goldberg spends more time in Santa Cruz than in La Paz, Bolivia's capital. Why?
It is evident that the US government is interested in halting the process of change that is occurring in Latin America. Of all the progressive and nationalistic governments that have emerged in the region, the Bolivian government is the weakest — due to internal divisions, the ignorance of its people and the racism that has characterised Bolivian society. Evo Morales is an Aymara Indian.
The alternative media report that the secessionists also are supported by the Colombian government. Although definitive proof is not available, it is not possible to rule out that this is true, when we take into account that Colombian paramilitary groups have been organising and training far-right formations in the Half Moon.
The Santa Cruz secessionists are so sure of their success that Costas, a well-known oligarch, declared that after May 4, the date for a separatist referendum, "a second Bolivia will be created", because the departments of Tarija, Pando and Benin will join Santa Cruz. He said he enjoyed the support of the prefect of La Paz, an assurance that the latter has not denied.
In an urgent meeting called at the request of Bolivia, the Organization of American States on April 26 approved by consensus a call to the separatists to suspend the referendum and begin a dialogue with the government. Although difficult, this could prevent an inevitable confrontation, with the consequent spilling of blood.
The OAS's political secretary, Dante Caputo, who visited Santa Cruz de la Sierra (the department's capital) but was not received by the prefect and the other authorities, expressed his concern over peace in Bolivia, given the aggressiveness of the authorities of that prefecture, who accused him of being "a Chavista".
The White House, through Golberg, declared its neutrality in the conflict. That's the equivalent of giving a green light to the secessionists it has helped to organise and to develop a systematic propaganda campaign to convince Santa Cruzans that secession would improve their lives.
Behind succession push
The autonomy document drafted by the authorities in Santa Cruz resuscitates the Camba Nation, an old secessionist project of the local oligarchy, first expounded in 1905. Santa Cruz is Bolivia's richest and most densely populated department, with more than 2 million people.
The rest of the Half Moon departments have large fields of crude oil, natural gas and other minerals. Also, Bolivia's largest agricultural riches are concentrated there. The idea of becoming independent from the rest of the country — poor and less developed — could sound like a sirens' song to Half Moon residents, particularly the white ones.
But there is another element that cannot be forgotten. Morales' rise to the presidency meant for the oligarchy the loss of much of the power it held for more than a century. Whenever the oligarchy's interests were in danger, the army staged a coup d'etat — sometimes more than once a year — and controlled the situation.
The oligarchy has been unable to convince the military to take a similar step for various reasons, among them the existence of a new military high command not trained in US academies. The high command has repeatedly stated its obedience to constitutional principles and its respect for the president, who was elected by the people.
The other reason the oligarchs cannot forgive Morales and his followers is that he has tried to give dignity to the living conditions of the poorest sectors of the population. The nationalisation of hydrocarbons has served to improve the state's revenues and to alleviate the difficult economic situation of most of the Bolivian people.
The Dignity Bond, which is the pension given to people 60 and older, the health and education campaigns — with the help of Cuba and Venezuela — and Bolivia's membership in the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) are changes that the oligarchy cannot forgive, much less accept, because they diminish its power and existence as a class.
Those changes cannot be accepted by the White House, either, or the other oligarchies of Latin America. It is a problem of the survival of class distinctions, a topic that dovetails perfectly with the interests of the power elites, not only in the United States but everywhere else in the world. The plan to keep the neoliberal model alive at any price remains in effect.
It is no surprise, then, that the European press talks about the impossibility of an accord between the opposition and Evo Morales' progressive government. It is no surprise that the US media are minimising a situation that could lead to a civil war.
Decisive battle
Next May 4, several issues will be settled in Bolivia. An unconstitutional referendum called by the Santa Cruz oligarchy can lead the country to a state of civil war in which — have no doubt — external forces will participate on the side of the secessionists.
In an urgent meeting of ALBA, called by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, three member countries (Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela) gave their unconditional support to Morales. How far they can furnish that support, only they know.
But there is another way to keep the Bolivian oligarchy from achieving its purposes: to call the people to the streets — a people "who have nothing to lose, except their chains".
I think that it is better to die defending the interests of the nation than to surrender.
Before it is too late, it is up to Morales to mobilise the people and, if possible, the army (though that's not known) before the oligarchy achieves its purposes and implants anew the neoliberal model, with all its consequences. Several years ago, a gallows was built in Santa Cruz de la Sierra for Morales and his followers. I invite you to meditate.
[Reprinted from Progreso Weekly.]