By Jubin Goodarzi
The Taliban's capture of Kabul in September has sent shock waves throughout Central Asia. Fearing the prospect of the Afghan civil war spilling over into the former Soviet south, Russia and the governments of four Central Asian republics convened an emergency summit in the Kazak capital of Almaty on October 21 to discuss the crisis and ways to bolster security along the Afghan frontier. Iran also expressed grave concern over the "widening scope of the crisis".
The Taliban's draconian measures and repressive conduct have been greeted with a chorus of international condemnation and hostility. Amnesty International accused the Taliban of overseeing a reign of terror by arresting hundreds in house-to-house searches and subjecting women and children to public humiliation. Various European officials have also expressed criticism. German foreign minister Klaus Kinkel denounced their "mob justice", while in Brussels, Europe's commissioner for humanitarian aid, Emma Bonino, advocated a more active EU stance on Afghanistan. She also pointed out that "the reaction of the United States has been surprisingly mild". In reality, her assessment of the US response to the Taliban take-over in Kabul was somewhat misleading, to say the least.
Washington has voiced little concern about the unfolding tragedy in Afghanistan. The few statements that have been made by US officials have in fact been relatively sympathetic and conciliatory towards the Taliban. US State Department spokesman Glyn Davies said that there was "nothing objectionable" about the domestic policies pursued by the Taliban. An announcement was also made that Washington would dispatch a diplomatic envoy to hold talks with the new regime. In April, Assistant Secretary of State Robin Raphel visited the militia's headquarters in Kandahar and held talks with aides of Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar. Despite the repeated denials of US officials, there is little doubt that Washington has been at least passively supporting the Taliban for some time.
After its sudden emergence in the summer of 1994, with the backing of Pakistan, the Taliban quickly took the key cities of Kandahar and Herat and overran almost two-thirds of the country within two years. Contrary to popular belief, the Taliban are not a rag-tag group of religious students who succeeded in conquering so much territory because of their religious zealotry. They have in fact received substantial aid, both in terms of material and financial assistance, from Islamabad, and possibly Washington. The Taliban were not able to field an army of some 25,000 men with tanks, armoured vehicles and fighter aircraft only through the use of local resources or divine intervention. Reports indicate that they were able to recruit former Afghan military personnel in Pakistani refugee camps who had previously served as tank operators, specialised technicians and fighter pilots by coopting them with salaries paid in US dollars.
From the US perspective, the Taliban's emergence as the dominant force in Afghanistan is desirable for two primary reasons. First, they view Iran with great suspicion. Second, the "restoration of peace and stability" might enable the US and Pakistan to cultivate new trade links with the Central Asian republics, particularly opening up the possibility of gas and oil pipelines from there to Pakistan and the Indian Ocean via Afghanistan. Such a move would have a two-fold effect: securing US commercial and strategic interests in the region, while diminishing Iran's. Tehran has been lobbying the Central Asian republics for the construction of gas and oil pipelines through its territory, instead of alternate routes. It would also further Washington's long-term policy of diversifying its energy supplies, thereby reducing its dependence on oil from the Gulf region.
As early as 1993, Pakistan and Turkmenistan had signed an agreement to jointly develop their energy resources and construct a pipeline between the two countries. Then, in October 1995, the California-based Unocal oil company signed a protocol with the Turkmen government to explore the possibility of constructing an oil pipeline to Pakistan through Afghan territory. This entailed a one-year, $l0 million feasibility study for a project worth $18 billion to transport Turkmen oil and gas via pipeline to the Indian Ocean. Not surprisingly, in the days following the Taliban's victory in Kabul, commenting on the recent developments, the vice-president of Unocal, Christopher Taggart, confidently stated that "we regard it as very positive". He added that if the US followed Pakistan's example of cementing ties with the Taliban, this would open opportunities for them.
Iran, which backs the government of ousted President Rabbani, now finds itself in a quandary. While some of its religious leaders have severely criticised the Taliban, the remarks of other officials have been more cautious. Foreign Minister Velayati has urged the warring factions to pursue a diplomatic solution to end the civil war. Ironically, while Tehran's ruling clerics have frequently suffered from paranoid delusions in the past, accusing Washington of being responsible for their foreign policy setbacks, they may be right in this case. The prospects seem strong that they may have to painfully come to terms with a fait accompli in Afghanistan in the near future.
For Pakistan and the US, it remains to be seen whether they can reap the benefits of the Taliban's rise to power in the long term. One cannot help but surmise that their recent actions may come back to haunt them at some point down the road.
[Abridged from Middle East International, October 25.]