By Stephen Marks
US government officials have reacted with hostility to the possibility that Daniel Ortega of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) may be re-elected president of Nicaragua on November 4.
US ambassador to Nicaragua, Oliver Garza, stated in May, "If the Sandinistas win in these coming elections, but don't change their policies, then neither will the US change its policies towards them." These US policies in the 1980s included supplying, transporting, paying and arming the Nicaraguan Resistance counter-revolutionaries (contras). In addition, the US blocked Nicaragua's access to markets, international loans and even mined its harbours.
This antagonism was in reaction to progressive policies implemented by the Sandinista government after the overthrow of the US-backed dictator, Anastasio Somoza, in 1979. The new government nationalised Somoza's ill-gotten wealth and poured resources into education, social security and health care.
The Nicaraguan people successfully resisted the US aggression, but paid a high price in casualties and economic dislocation. In 1990, in a surprise result, the FSLN lost the elections.
Garza has threatened that US aid to Nicaragua will end if the FSLN wins and has also pressured two right-wing parties, the ruling Liberal Constitutionalist Party (PLC) and the Conservative Party (PC), to sort out their differences so as not to divide the anti-FSLN vote. Similarly, meeting with Nicaraguan business leaders in June, acting US assistant Secretary of State and former ambassador to Nicaragua, Lino Gutierrez, warned that an FSLN government would face retaliation if it failed to toe the line.
Contra commanders
As if taking their cue from these remarks, former contra commanders recently met with current President Arnoldo Aleman to discuss a lobbying trip to Washington. They intend marshalling US support in case of an FSLN win. No doubt they will try to meet with President George W. Bush's recent nominees to senior posts within his administration, John Negroponte and Otto Reich. Both helped organise the covert funding and arming of the contras during the 1980s.
Such blatant interference has not gone unnoticed. US Catholic Bishop Thomas Gumbleton has sponsored a newspaper advertisement which says in part: "The government, in conduct frighteningly reminiscent of its activities in Central America during the 1980s, has been engaging in a concerted campaign to influence the upcoming elections."
Financial mismanagement, a banking sector in a state of near collapse and endemic corruption have helped sink the popularity of President Aleman. From a start as small coffee grower, Aleman has amassed a fortune of US$250 million including 56 proprieties. His ministers pay themselves up to $25,000 a month, while teachers and doctors receive around $50 a month.
Anti-FSLN declarations by US officials are useful for the right-wing election strategy of scaring voters into thinking that an FSLN victory would once again mean war and hardship. The PLC presidential candidate, Vice President Enrique Bolanos, a former associate of the Somozas, told a group of ex-contras in May that he intended to govern as a contra and for the contras. Nonetheless, 51% of the eligible voters are aged between 16 and 30. Many of them would have little memory of the contra war.
FSLN victory?
If Ortega maintains his level of support at 35%, and his current 5% lead over his nearest rival, then the FSLN could win outright on November 4. This would avoid a second round runoff under the terms of the new electoral system introduced as part of a controversial governability pact between Ortega and Aleman.
Part of the deal included tightening the eligibility criteria for smaller parties to run in elections. This eliminated most of the smaller parties, such as the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS). However, the PC's Noel Vidaurre has so far managed to meet the new criteria. His running will advantage the FSLN.
Ortega's success in the opinion polls has muted previous criticism that he was unelectable. While he won the pre-selection ballot in January, in which some 400,000 participated, he faced much stronger opposition than in the last pre-selection in 1996. Left candidate Victor Hugo Tinoco accepted Ortega's victory but claimed that he had won 30%, and that economist Alejandro Martinez Cuenca had won 20% of the vote. However, the FSLN is now closing ranks behind Ortega and his running mate, former Auditor General Agustin Jarquin, of the Social Christian Party, a well known anti-corruption campaigner.
Jarquin has indicated that he believes that the FSLN has abandoned Leninism in favour of social democracy. Some reports suggest that the Social Christians will run the ministries of the social cabinet and external cooperation.
Ortega is planning to announce his proposed cabinet ministers on July 19, the anniversary of the 1979 revolution, in an expected mobilisation of 100,000 people. The FSLN has also been supporting street protests, especially recent transport strikes, and populist measures to support coffee growers.
Meeting with a delegation of US officials in January to seek a way to "work with" President Bush if he wins, Ortega stated, "of course we are going to work with the interests of the US government."
The IMF seems willing to give Aleman extra money to prop up his government. At the same time, other lenders are wary of the prospect of an FSLN victory. Nicaraguan capitalists may carry out an investment strike and move their remaining capital offshore while they assess the new government. This will make it difficult for Ortega to carry out his promise to create, "a market economy with a humanist touch".
He has also proposed developing a new government system based on consultative municipal assemblies which would have input into economic, social and political themes discussed by the National Assembly.
However, the greatest challenge will be to live up to the expectations of party supporters, many of whom still adhere to the ideals and mystique of the revolutionary decade of the 1980s.
[Sources: Weekly News Update on the Americas, Envio.]