In an interview printed in the February 19 London Financial Times, Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said that Iran could be as little as six months away from being able to enrich uranium to fuel-grade level on an industrial scale.
"ElBaradei added that US and British intelligence estimates said that Iran was still five to 10 years away from developing a nuclear bomb and warned against 'hype' over Tehran's nuclear progress", the FT reported.
The head of the UN's nuclear watchdog made his remarks two days before the UN Security Council's February 21 deadline for Iran to agree to suspend its uranium enrichment research activities.
Last July, Washington and its European Union allies in London and Paris succeeded in pressuring the Security Council to adopt Resolution 1696, which, while recognising Iran's right as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) "to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination", contradictorily "decides" that "Iran shall without further delay suspend ... all [uranium] enrichment-related and reprocessing activities".
Tehran declared that it would ignore the resolution, as it contravened Iran's right under the NPT to enrich uranium to provide fuel for its nuclear power plants, the first of which, at Bushehr, is due to begin generating electricity this November. Iran wants to produce its nuclear fuel from its own uranium deposits, rather than import it.
On December 23, the Security Council adopted Resolution 1737. This imposed limited financial sanctions against 30 individuals involved in Iran's nuclear program and gave Tehran 60 days to agree to suspend uranium enrichment activities or face "further appropriate measures".
Refined uranium ore ("yellowcake") contains only about 0.7% of the fissile U-235 isotope. To be used as nuclear fuel, it must be enriched to about 5% U-235 content. Weapons-grade uranium must be enriched to at least 80% U-235.
To produce the 25 tonnes a year of fuel-grade uranium needed to run a nuclear power plant requires a highly complex production process using multiple cascades of thousands of aluminium centrifuges spinning at very high speeds for months on end.
Washington has been pushing for several years now for the Security Council to impose a full-blown sanctions regime on Iran. The US administration is attempting to lay the basis for a future "regime change" invasion of Iran, which has significant oil and gas resources.
US officials have alleged that Iran's uranium enrichment activities are aimed at producing nuclear weapons, but ElBaradei has repeatedly reported to the IAEA's governing board that his inspectors — who regularly monitor Iran's nuclear activities to verify that they comply with the NPT — have found no evidence to support Washington's allegation.
In his FT interview, ElBaradei said that Iran had produced a few grams of fuel-grade uranium with an experimental cascade of 164 centrifuges at its Natanz enrichment pilot plant, and that Iran's experiments with two further 164-centrifuge cascades in the pilot program were functioning.
Pointing out that "there's a big difference between acquiring the knowledge for enrichment and developing a bomb", ElBaradei said Iran could install an industrial scale capacity of 3000 centrifuges within six to 12 months.
On February 20, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, speaking to a crowd of thousands in Tehran, said his country was ready to stop its enrichment program, but only if Western nations do the same.
"Justice demands that those who want to hold talks with us shut down their nuclear fuel cycle program too. Then, we can hold dialogue under a fair atmosphere", he said.
The White House immediately dismissed the suggestion.
Associated Press reported on February 20 that discussions on a new UN resolution "aimed at stepping up pressure on Iran to suspend enrichment are expected to start next week, a Security Council diplomat said in New York, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
"The council debate will focus on what new non-military sanctions to include in a resolution, the European diplomat said. Possible new sanctions could include a travel ban against individuals on the UN list, an expansion of the list, economic measures such as a ban on export guarantees to Iran, and an expansion of the nuclear embargo to an arms embargo, the council diplomat said.
"But Russia and China, both veto-holding council members with close ties to Iran, are likely to oppose economic sanctions or weapons bans. A travel ban was dropped from the initial resolution because of Moscow's opposition, so tough negotiations are expected, the diplomat said."