By Max Lane
Manoeuvres by different sections of the ruling class and the legal opposition parties have begun in preparation for the March session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).
The MPR will elect the president and vice-president and adopt a document titled Broad Outlines of State Policy. The preparations for the MPR are taking place in an increasingly volatile social, economic and political climate.
Localised spontaneous protests on a range of issues continue to take place in many parts of the country. Speculation is rife as to what the International Monetary Fund and World Bank might demand from the Suharto government in return for loans to help defend the Indonesian rupiah, which has lost more than 35% of its value against the US dollar.
The drop in the rupiah has already resulted in a rise in prices and large-scale lay-offs in industry. The economic situation has been made worse by large-scale harvest failures in some regions. Both the moderate opposition forces, led by Megawati Sukarnoputri, and the radical underground forces continue to be active.
One signal of the atmosphere of volatility has been the surprise move by a key Muslim figure to call for a referendum on whether people want Suharto to be reappointed as president.
Amien Rais, the chair of Muhammidiyah, was quoted as saying that he did "not believe that all Indonesians want to re-elect Pak Harto". He added that the 1000-member MPR should also "take the poll result into consideration if a majority chooses the contrary".
Rais said that renomination of Suharto would "only mean that we turn him into a cult figure".
Rais has become increasingly critical of the government since the May general elections. Before the elections, he had criticised government policy which allowed foreign companies easy access to mineral resources. As a result, he was forced out of a leading position in the pro-Suharto Association of Indonesian Muslim Intellectuals.
In the wake of the massive anti-government mobilisations during the election campaign, Rais has directed more of his criticism against the renomination of Suharto. He has also stated that he would be prepared to be nominated as a presidential candidate.
As head of the Muhammidiyah, Rais has considerable standing in the Indonesian middle class and among some sections of the practising urban Muslim community. However, Muhammidiyah has long avoided political activity, concentrating mostly on building hospitals, orphanages and schools.
Muhammidiyah has not identified itself with any of the mobilised discontent that has surfaced over the recent period. Rais would need to prove himself as a consistent opponent of the Suharto regime before he could win political influence among the urban and rural poor.
At the same time, even the recognised and extremely tame parliamentary parties, the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) and the United Development Party (PPP), are attempting to manoeuvre to distinguish themselves from the government party, GOLKAR, and the military faction in the parliament.
Usually such manoeuvres take place only before the elections. The PDI and PPP have said that they will move to put human rights provisions, as yet unstipulated, into the main documents put out by the MPR. The Golkar and military groups have, so far, not supported this proposal.
These moves take place in an atmosphere of increasing unrest and organised agitation by the democratic underground.
In a separate report, retired Lieutenant-General Moetojib, chief of the State Intelligence Coordinating Board, has warned that anti-government groups might try to disrupt the presidential election. On October 24, after a meeting with President Suharto, he told the press that many of the recent protests were linked by "a red thread" and were all aimed at disrupting the preparations for the MPR.
He told the press that no action had been taken against the as yet unnamed organisations because their actions did not yet constitute "a coup".