By Norm Dixon
Opinion polls in South Africa indicate that support for the African National Congress may be close to the all-important 66% mark. Should the ANC win the April 27 elections with more than a two-thirds majority, it will be able to write a new final constitution without requiring the approval of any other party.
The poll, conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) in November, shows the ANC gaining 67% of the vote, with the National Party (NP) next best at 17%. Support for the Inkatha Freedom Party of Chief Mangosuthu Gatsha Buthelezi has dropped sharply according to the poll, garnering just 6%. Inkatha's support is even lower, since it has virtually no support in the Transkei, Venda, Bophuthatswana and Ciskei homelands, which were not polled. A year ago, the HSRC was finding IFP support levels of up to 11%.
The Pan-Africanist Congress (PAC) polled 2%, while the Azanian People's Organisation (Azapo) just cleared 1%. Twenty-four per cent of those surveyed were still undecided, and among "coloured" voters this category was substantially higher.
The poll shows that NP support among Africans has almost completely evaporated, while the ANC has made little headway in gaining white votes. Among "coloured" voters — from whom de Klerk has banked on a significant number of votes — the NP has lost considerable support. However, the ANC has failed as yet to gain these voters' unambiguous support, most of them placing themselves in the "don't know" or "won't tell" category.
Support for the far-right, pro-apartheid Conservative Party (CP) has dropped from 30% of whites to about 20%, suggesting that many conservative whites are beginning to accept majority rule as inevitable.
Another poll, released by the Johannesburg Sunday Times on January 16, agreed with the November poll. It found that the ANC would win 65% of the vote and control all nine of the new regional governments, including Natal, where most of the Zulu people live. The NP scored 16%. Inkatha's support was a dismal 5%, making it doubtful that, should it participate in the election, it would qualify for even one cabinet post in the government of national unity that will take power after April 27.
As the election draws near, the pressure is starting to tell on those groups opposed to the elections. Inkatha remain hostile to the interim constitution and the Transitional Executive Council, which is preparing the April election. Inkatha says it will not take part in the election. However, behind the scenes it seems Buthelezi's normally ironclad control of the Inkatha organisation is being challenged by a pro-elections faction.
Those in favour of participation view a boycott as giving the ANC a free run in Natal, especially since a recent poll has put ANC support in Natal — Inkatha's supposed stronghold — at 51% compared to Inkatha's 23%.
The misnamed Freedom Alliance — led by Inkatha and the CP — suffered a defection when the government of the Ciskei bantustan broke ranks and decided to join the TEC and participate in the elections.
Many South Africans suspect that Buthelezi's refusal to take part in the elections is based on the knowledge that Inkatha will do very poorly. The biggest danger facing South Africa following the elections will be the likely resort by Buthelezi and his supporters to violence to what they cannot achieve at the ballot box.
Violence originating from Inkatha followers continues. On January 9, Inkatha-aligned hostel snipers opened fire on ANC leaders Cyril Ramaphosa and Joe Slovo in the East Rand township of Katlehong.
One journalist was killed and two others wounded in the shooting, but bodyguards bustled the ANC leaders out of danger. The ANC leaders were in the township on a peace tour.
At least 11 people were killed when 10,000 Inkatha supporters demonstrated in Pretoria in favour of "self-determination" for the "Zulu nation" on January 18.
The KwaZulu bantustan government, also headed by Buthelezi, says it will regard any attempt to send SA Police (SAP) into the homeland as an "invasion".
In December, the TEC proposed that SAP units be responsible for law and order duties in two violence-prone areas of the homeland and Natal province. The homeland's KwaZulu Police is widely seen as the private army of Inkatha.
Buthelezi's defiance coincides with a confidential police report, released to the TEC, which says IFP supporters are largely the aggressors in political violence in Natal province. The report warns of increased violence in the run-up to the election.
In another important shift, the Pan Africanist Congress announced on January 16 that it would take part in the April 27 elections and also join the TEC. The PAC's armed wing, the Azanian People's Liberation Army, would also suspend its armed struggle pending negotiations with the government for an amnesty for APLA combatants.
The announcement, by PAC president Clarence Makwetu, followed an attack on a pub in Cape Town which left four people dead and nine wounded. PAC officials initially emphatically denied APLA's involvement in the massacre but later claimed uncertainty over the organisation's possible involvement.
Similar confused responses from the PAC have followed previous attacks on unarmed, mainly white, civilians over the past year. The seeming lack of control over APLA activities by the PAC leadership also allowed right-wing elements of the security forces — the notorious "third force" — to launch attacks on civilians and ANC activists for destabilisation purposes and blame them on APLA.
It has been widely known for some time that the political leadership of the PAC was keen to end the armed struggle and participate in the negotiations process but was unable convince its military leadership, based in Tanzania. Tanzania recently threatened to deprive APLA of its bases if its attacks continued.