By Norm Dixon
The sudden death of Moshood Abiola, the imprisoned winner of Nigeria's 1993 presidential election, has thrown into disarray the west's efforts to rehabilitate the brutal and corrupt military dictatorship.
From June 8, when dictator General Sani Abacha died, the western powers moved to end the military regime's isolation and paint the token easing of repression by Abacha's successor, General Abdulsalam Abubakar, as a fundamental shift towards democracy.
The unseemly haste to welcome Abubakar is due to Nigeria's vast oil wealth and the regime's willingness to police the region to ensure the "stability" so dear to the hearts and wallets of big business.
On June 17, Abubakar released nine prominent political prisoners, including two leaders of the country's oil workers' unions. On June 25, another 17 were released. On June 28, Abubakar held talks with one of the main unofficial opposition groups, the National Democratic Coalition. The regime began to spread rumours that Abiola would soon be released.
Pro-democracy forces pointed out that the releases were only the start of what was required: the release of Abiola, 20 leaders of Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP) and thousands of other political prisoners.
The regime must allow an elected civilian government to take power, democracy activists said. A popular demand was that Abiola head a transitional civilian administration to organise free and fair elections.
Speaking to the BBC, former head of state General Olusegun Obasanjo, one of those released on June 17, stated: "After you have had two successive military governments that lied, deceived, oppressed, covered up, it would take more than just releasing one individual — or even all the political detainees — to really establish credibility and confidence".
Beko Ransome-Kuti, chairperson of the Campaign for Democracy, also released on June 17, added: "The army has to go now. Someone has won an election and Abubakar should hand over power."
Ledum Mitee, MOSOP acting president, on June 19 reminded the world that previous military regimes had released political prisoners to buy time to consolidate their power.
"Twenty Ogoni political prisoners have languished in a cell for more than four years awaiting trial. They face the same politically motivated charge, the same violations of their human rights and the same hangman's noose that killed Ken Saro-Wiwa. This month the military authorities refused to obey a court ruling to release them on bail."
Mitee demanded that the regime release all Ogoni and Nigerian political prisoners; immediately demilitarise Ogoniland, restore civil rights and lift the ban on MOSOP; immediately lift martial law; and immediately undertake to form a transitional government that will call a national conference of elected representatives of all Nigeria's ethnic groups, to reach a consensus on the fair allocation of oil revenues and design of a federal structure.
Such firm conditions are clearly not the priority of the west. In a June 26 speech, Susan Rice, US assistant secretary of state for African affairs, gushed: "General Abdulsalam Abubakar can play a noble and decisive role in shaping [Nigeria's] destiny by charting a fresh course toward reform".
On June 27, British foreign minister Tony Lloyd met Abubakar on behalf of the European Union. Saying there had been "promising changes", Lloyd signalled that the EU would not insist that the regime recognise the results of the 1993 election.
Next in line was Commonwealth Secretary-General Emeka Anyaoku, who arrived on June 29. "My hope is that my presence is the beginning of the process of Nigeria's reintegration into the international community ... The extent to which the new government has gone in dealing with democratisation, human rights and national reconciliation is a good ground for hope", Anyaoku said. Nigeria was suspended from the Commonwealth in 1995, following the murder of Ken Saro-Wiwa.
That same day, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan began a four-day pilgrimage to Nigeria. At a lavish state banquet, Annan praised Abubakar and urged "all Nigerians who want to see this nation move on to work with him". Anyaoku said that the new dictator had launched a process that "will enable Nigeria to realise its full potential".
In an action that outraged the democracy movement, Annan met with Abiola and sought to convince him to relinquish his claim to the presidency — the condition the regime had raised for his release. "I found him more realistic than some of us outside. Chief Abiola realises that a lot has changed", Annan told the press on July 2.
Sections of the democracy movement denounced Annan and denied that Abiola has renounced the presidency. The regime threatened to delay Abiola's release until his supporters accepted that their leader had relinquished the presidency.
On July 6, a high-powered US delegation led by Rice, US undersecretary of state for political affairs Thomas Pickering and US ambassador William Twaddell arrived to stamp Washington's seal of approval on the regime. Pickering said that Washington would not be "prescriptive" over the timetable for transferring power to a civilian administration.
Rice on June 26 explained: "Nigeria is large and influential ... [It has] an abundance of natural resources and the largest domestic market on the continent. [Nigeria] was instrumental in restoring the legitimate Sierra Leone government ... In Liberia, Nigeria actively supported the peace process by contributing over 75% of the West African peacekeeping troops ... We thus have come to value Nigeria as an important potential partner in helping bring security to troubled neighbouring states."
Rice pointed out that Nigeria is the largest trading partner of the US in Africa, receiving US$815 million worth of US exports and sending $6 billion of exports, mainly oil, to the US.
"We seek a stable, prosperous, democratic Nigeria that respects human rights. We hope to be in a position to promote favourable trade and investment partnerships in one of the largest economies on the continent. Finally, we hope Nigeria will continue to play a responsible role in resolving regional conflicts", Rice said.
While meeting the delegation on July 7, Abiola suffered a heart attack. His death triggered riots throughout the country, dozens of demonstrators being killed by troops. The government closed schools and imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew.
While an autopsy by an international team of pathologists found that Abiola's death was due to "natural" causes, it was clear the 60-year-old's years of solitary confinement contributed. It was well known that Abiola was in poor health, but the military consistently refused to allow his doctors to treat him.
Abiola's death has deprived the west of the carefully staged spectacle of Nigeria's most prominent political prisoner being released — an event that could have justified the ending of the regime's pariah status.
It also means that the democracy movement will not be led by a conservative figure who in the past was prepared to collaborate with the military and had never been willing to inconvenience western interests. (Abiola was head of US communications giant International Telephone and Telegraph's African and Middle Eastern operations from 1971 to 1988.)