The release of the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics employment figures was greeted with enthusiasm by the federal government and big business alike. "Sensational", exclaims Chris Caton, chief economist for the Bankers Trust Australia. "At last: the real recovery", trumpets the Financial Review. Not to be outdone, Prime Minister Keating claimed, "Now the government is of the view it can restore full employment" by the year 2000. "Full employment" is interpreted by Keating as being 5% unemployment; in the early '70s, 2% unemployment was unacceptable and could bring governments down.
Looking beyond the hype, the latest figures tell us that there has been a small drop in unemployment from 11.1% to 10.7%, with 123,000 new jobs created over the last four months. However, the next set of ABS figures will reflect a seasonal surge when schools eject the next generation of unemployed.
What the government didn't want to hear was the latest Department of Social Security figures that show that the numbers receiving unemployment benefits has actually risen for the same period by 0.5%. Perhaps even more alarmingly, the long-term unemployed increased by 1.5% (to nearly 500,000). Some commentators concluded that there is now a permanent under-class in Australia.
Last month a government task force released its green paper, "Restoring Full Employment", which outlines proposals for creating jobs for the long-term unemployed. It proposes that the government subsidise 450,000 jobs for six to nine months. At the end of this period, it is anticipated that only 50,000 of these jobs would continue. This will allow the government, by sleight of hand, to reduce by 400,000 the long-term unemployed figures. Further, the initial jobs presuppose an arrangement with the union movement to allow under-award payments.
Figures can be made to tell a thousand lies. The reality is that new jobs are barely keeping pace with those being destroyed and, therefore, high levels of unemployment will persist well beyond the turn of the century. "Full" employment will be achieved only when some future Paul Keating redefines it as 8-10%, or when working hours are greatly reduced.
A campaign for a shorter working week, with no loss in pay (there exists enough wealth in this country for this to become a reality), is urgently needed if we are to rescue hundreds of thousands of Australians from the destructive cycle of joblessness.