By Craig Etcheson
Everyone seems to agree the Khmer Rouge are finished, or are they? It is well to recall that Cambodia is covered with graves of those who underestimated Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge (KR).
Nonetheless, the majority view is that the danger has passed. Prince Sihanouk called the election "an historic defeat" for the KR. In the US, secretary of state Warren Christopher termed the elections "the triumph of democracy", and the assistant secretary Winston Lord opines that the KR are now "manageable". Clinton administration intelligence officials are giving background briefings with the message, "The Khmer Rouge are in disarray". Mr Twinning mocks them: "I hope they like the forest".
Perhaps the most systematic exposition of this view to appear in public was Nate Thayer's recent piece titled "Whither the Khmer Rouge?". Thayer argues the KR are isolated and vulnerable, "with no allies they can rely on for the first time since 1970". They are "incapable of remobilising an army" and consequently unable to "seize control of more territory". Abandoned by their FUNCINPEC allies as a liability, they "may find themselves a target of an internationally supported military campaign to destroy them".
As the subhead of Thayer's piece proclaims, it sounds like the end for the KR. And perhaps this is exactly what Pol Pot wishes to be perceived at the present time. Nearly 3000 years ago, the Chinese General Sun Tzu wrote in his classic treatise, The Art of War, "All warfare is based on deception".
After all, as Thayer himself points out, the Khmer Rouge retain significant strengths. "Their organisation remains essentially intact ... and they have sufficient 'popular strength' to sustain them." "They have competent administration and military" in an "autonomous zone of control" covering at least one-fifth of the country.' These zones include "areas rich in rice, gems, timber and safe supply lines to willing commercial partners". Moreover, their armed forces have recently grown, and have received new weapons from Thai generals, as confirmed by US, UN and other intelligence sources.
Compare this to their situation of utter defeat, isolation and exile in 1979-1980, and one can argue that the Khmer Rouge have actually made excellent progress. Yet the wise general deceives. As Sun Tzu says, "Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance". But this is not all. Pol Pot is a political strategist par excellence.
If Pol Pot had relied on the military strength of his party alone, he would never have come to power in the first place. The Khmer Rouge originally gained power in 1975 by forming a united front with th overthrown god-king Norodom Sihanouk, thus winning the allegiance of Cambodia's peasants. The identity of the Khmer Rouge leaders and the existence of their communist party was kept absolutely secret. The Khmer Rouge then systematically liquidated royalist politicians and soldiers until Pol Pot had secured undisputed control.
This time around, Pol Pot decided to stick with a winning strategy. After the overthrow of his murderous regime by Vietnam in 1979, Pol Pot declared that his communist party had been dissolved, he was retiring form politics to become a school teacher, and the Khmer Rouge were adopting capitalism. The Khmer Rouge then formed a united front with Prince Sihanouk to make war on the Cambodian government. The scenario would make a delightful farce were it not so predictable, and so lethal.
According to a defector, Pol Pot instructed Khmer Rouge military officers in 1988 that "The fruit remains the same; only the skin has changed". A captured Khmer Rouge document dated January 10, 1992, emphasises, "We must concentrate first on accelerating the infiltration of category one forces in order to gradually establish in advance the prerequisites" for the takeover of his hapless allies. Again, the Khmer Rouge have been liquidating royalists in order to seize control of the front.
Prince Sihanouk remembers what the Khmer Rouge did to his National United Front in the 1970s. Sihanouk resigned as the leader of the royalists before the Paris treaty, and now says, "There are Khmer Rouge who occupy important positions in FUNCINPEC. They [have become] chiefs of bureaus, heads of provincial organisations. There are apparently assassins among these Khmer Rouge."
As the Khmer Rouge specialist Jacques Bekaert observes, "In the zones controlled by the former resistance ... everything is in the hands of the military and people are executed almost every day for a variety of reasons". Bekaert adds, "A large number of soldiers belonging to FUNCINPEC or the KPNLF have vanished". The Khmer Rouge military provides "security" in these so-called "non-communist liberated zones."
UN and other intelligence sources indicated that royalist military units have now been assigned logistics functions by the Khmer Rouge. FUNCINPEC units are responsible for transporting ammunition and other military stores from their Thai military suppliers to the front line Khmer Rouge combat units. The fact that Pol Pot has entrusted royalists with such a crucial role indicates the Khmer Rouge have completed the task of establishing operational control over significant portions of the royalist military command.
The few surviving FUNCINPEC commanders loyal to Cambodian royalty realised the untenability of their position. Five of them defected to the People's Party this year.
On the political front, the Khmer Rouge long ago adopted a "leopard spot" strategy of infiltrating cadre into villages for clandestine political work. This tactic has multiple objectives, including providing intelligence, propagandising the population, causing disarray in the enemy's rear areas and infiltrating enemy political organisations. Tens of thousands of people from KR camps in Thailand are now dispersed across Cambodia; how many still work for the KR?
All this may account for the fact that the KR did not seriously disrupt the election, as was widely predicted. Instead, they brought out their followers with instructions to vote for FUNCINPEC. The tactic has been exceedingly successful. Respected specialists on the Khmer Rouge such as Raoul Jenner and Ben Kiernan warn that the Khmer Rouge tactic of infiltrating agents into allied and opposition parties alike — a tactic used most effectively in the past — is most likely still in use by Pol Pot. How many officials of FUNCINPEC, or for that matter the People's Party, are Khmer Rouge agents?
Sun Tzu says, "To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill". Perhaps the most significant strength of the Khmer Rouge is one that has escaped all comment in the West. The greatest obstacle to a Khmer Rouge return to power has been the State of Cambodia. That obstacle has been swept away, replaced by a weak coalition government. The victorious FUNCINPEC is largely manned by the personnel who have been in exile for a quarter century and have no experience in governing. The division of power between the People's Party and FUNCINPEC is tenuous at best. Such a government is extremely vulnerable to subversion and black measures, Pol Pot's speciality.
For the last 18 months, the greatest threat to the KR has been the international spotlight. Recently, Pol Pot has begun making nice noises toward the UN, offering to integrate his army, open his zones and become a "simple party". He might even stop attacking UN positions. Of course, such negotiations will take time and by then UNTAC will be gone. After UNTAC departs Cambodia, the issue will quickly fade from international attention. Another successful peacekeeping mission. As Sun Tzu says, "What is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy's strategy".
But let us not forget the Khmer Rouge still maintain that there are 3 million hereditary enemies in Cambodia to be exterminated. Promises by politicians like Australia's Senator Evans that the international community would invade to beat back a second Khmer Rouge attempt at genocide are laughable. Who would provide such troops? Australia? France? The US? Perhaps Japan? A brief look at the domestic political conditions in these states reveals the absurdity of the claim.
So, where does the balance lie? Given the facts, what one might term "Thayer Thesis" — that the KR are finished — is certainly plausible. FUNCINPEC and the KPLNF are now allied with the People's Party. Weapons shipments from China have been reduced or eliminated. Soon, KR diplomat Thioun Prasith may even be forced out of Cambodia's United Nations mission in New York. It could be the end of Pol Pot.
However, equally plausible is the contrary thesis, let's call it the "Sun Tzu Thesis", that Pol Pot is better positioned today for a return to power than at any time since 1979. The Vietnamese are gone. The "puppet regime" is defeated, replaced by an unstable conglomeration. Pol Pot still has his army, and still has highly placed friends in Thailand and China. He is wealthy. He has hugely expanded his territory and population. He has deeply infiltrated the opposing parties, and again has both overt and covert operatives in Phnom Penh. And he has convinced most of the world that the Khmer Rouge threat is no more. Sun Tzu would be proud. For, as he says in The Art of War, "He who lacks foresight and underestimates his enemy will surely be captured by him".
[Dr Craig Etcheson is executive director of the Campaign to Oppose the Return of the Khmer Rouge. This article originally appeared in the Phnom Penh Post.]