Roberto Jorquera
On June 12, Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that there would be a recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez on August 15.
Voters will be asked: "Do you agree to leave without effect for the current presidential period the popular mandate granted through popular legitimate elections to Hugo Rafael Chavez Frias as President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela."
According to Jonah Gindin, writing for the web-based news service Venezuelaanalysis.com: "Tensions will probably only intensify as the August 15 date for the referendum approaches. In the final count, the opposition barely got the 20% of the electorate required to force a recall election, squeezing in by only 105.553 signatures, or 0.9% of the electorate, above the requirements.
"At a march on June 6, hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans showed their support for the president, significantly overshadowing opposition protests from the day before. In his address, Chavez announced the dissolution of the Comando Ayacucho, the coordinating body of the political alliance supporting Chavez's government — to be replaced by a new body, named the Comando Nacional Maisanta (National Maisanta Command)."
In a statement released on June 9, National Union of Workers (UNT) coordinator Stalin Purez Borges encouraged workers to form Maisanta groups in every workplace, and work with such groups in the local community. Borges cautioned workers not to be carelessly optimistic, noting "the fact that we are the majority, does not promise certain victory in the referendum and the process of change. We must work to guarantee that the will of the majority of Venezuelans manifests itself and is respected."
"In this campaign called Santa Ins", continued Borges, "more than with 'military discipline' and decree from above, we must win by using the most democratic methods and having a greater sense of unity".
The UNT statement went on to warn against the certainty that a defeat will not stop the opposition and their US-backers from seeking Chavez's overthrow. Thus, workers must not only prepare themselves against electoral fraud but also against the opposition's probable refusal to recognise an unfavourable electoral outcome, and potential acts of sabotage.
Workplace Maisanta groups will also take tough positions on current labour disputes, opposing politically motivated firings and violations of collective agreements; encouraging workers to take over factories that have been closed; opposing the privatisation of public services; opposing corruption; and a redoubled effort to support social development projects.
The campaign has become an important test for the Bolivarian revolution, which has to contend with a US-backed right-wing opposition.
According to Chavez, the referendum will also be a vote on the role of the US in Venezuelan affairs. At the opening of a factory on June 12, Chavez explained: "the Bolivarian Revolution doesn't have any real internal enemies; the real enemy is 'Mr. Bush', the president of the US empire, from which foreign intervention in Venezuela is directed, and coups against democracy are financed."
"This battle is an ongoing process that has already defeated several devils", Chavez added. "We have people, and we need to organise better, because the adversary to defeat on August 15 is George W. Bush."
Venpres's Carmen Ostia Pulgar reported on June 13 that Chavez has warned that, despite the opposition's conciliatory tone and apparently peaceful message, it is hiding its real plans to dismantle many of the government's progressive reforms.
He said: "You will have to ask [leaders of the opposition] if they will keep the 13,000 Cuban doctors who are here as part of Mission Barrio Adentro, as well as the Bolivarian Schools, and Missions Sucre, Ribas, Robinson, and Vuelvan Caras. It's very clear that all of this will end, because Washington would govern the country for all intents and purposes, and their hypothetical government would really be an imperial puppet government."
If this happened, the national armed forces would have two options: to battle the people, or unite with them to free themselves from the foreign assault. If they did the latter, the US would could use it as justification to send in US Marines, as in Haiti.
The US' government prominent role in trying to unseat the government has not gone unnoticed. Writing for the web-based news site Rebellion.org on June 16, political analyst Heinz Dietrich warned that the government's recall campaign cannot be improvised and "should be fought tooth and nail to defeat an electoral dirty war that was victorious in Russia, Georgia, Nicaragua and the first phase of the recall referendum".
The opposition is now facing its biggest challenge. Because it did not expect Chavez to readily agree to holding a referendum, it is in no position to seriously challenge Chavez electorally. The anti-Chavez rallies held after the announcement that the recall would go ahead were attended by tens of thousands — contrasting with the hundreds of thousands attending the pro-Chavez rallies.
In a June 14 interview with news web site VHeadline, Venezuela's vice-president, Jose Vicente Rangel, has noted that,"The opposition is confronting a serious dilemma: Either it decides to go to the referendum legally, within the rules of the game, or it knocks over the table. Many observers believe it possible that before August 15, alleging [possible frauds], they will knock over the table." That is, it is very likely that the opposition will try to discredit the referendum process.
Rangel said,'the Chavez organization is well-defined, and has wide, popular outreach. This plan will yield results, but we're going to neutralise fraud. The [opposition] is going to try to commit fraud, because they know that hair by hair, or vote by vote, they won't defeat us."
From Green Left Weekly, June 23, 2004.
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