BY SEAN HEALY
For the second time in 15 years, the Philippines people have risen as one to overthrow a corrupt leader. In 1986, millions gathered on EDSA, Manila's main avenue, to demand the resignation of dictator Ferdinand Marcos; on January 20 it was the turn of President Joseph Estrada, who was forced to step down after four continuous days of mass protest.
The immediate trigger for the four-day people's revolt was the collapse of impeachment proceedings against Estrada. The president had been put on trial before the country's senate in December after allegations surfaced that he had accepted more than US$10 million in pay-offs.
Then, on January 15, Estrada's backers, who had the numbers in the senate, voted to exclude vital evidence, and the prosecutors walked out in disgust. The pro-Estrada senators jubilantly cheered their victory — in front of a live, and now very angry, audience of millions listening and watching the trials on radio and television.
From Manila, Reihana Mohideen, a member of the Socialist Party of Labour (SPP), described the ensuing scenes to Green Left Weekly, "That night people spilled onto the streets. At one point a handful of us who were at the SPP office stood at a main intersection outside with anti-Estrada banners and flags and received an incredible amount of support from passers-by — street kids joined us, cars and jeepneys tooted their horns non-stop.
"A call went out on radio for people to rally at the EDSA shrine, the place where the 1986 people's revolt against the Marcos dictatorship took place. By around 3am on January 16, tens of thousands had gathered at EDSA. People's power had truly begun."
Mohideen said that, after the 1986 experience, the Philippines masses understand "people's power" as "hundreds of thousands gathering in one spot and staying on, until the government falls". According to some estimates, almost two million people took to the streets over the four days that led to Estrada's overthrow.
In the following days, as the protests swelled, Estrada's ministers and military commanders deserted him, joining with vice-president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who had herself deserted Estrada's government in October. On January 20, the Supreme Court stripped Estrada of office and Arroyo, known as GMA, was sworn in as the new president.
"The broader context of this has to be kept in mind", Mohideen told Green Left Weekly. "There's a deep social and economic crisis in the Philippines: the economy's dysfunctional and has been all but ignored by investors, even by speculators; the war in the south against the Moro people has soaked up badly needed income; and the country is broke. Under such circumstances, the use of the presidency to plunder any remaining wealth was untenable, even for large sections of the ruling elite."
The ruling class was badly divided. The most influential voice of big business, the Makati Business Club, came out against the president and his cronies. Now, having removed Estrada, Arroyo has begun talking about the need for "reconciliation" — meaning, within the elite.
Besides the split in the ruling class, Mohideen believes the other key factor in the president's overthrow was "the critical role of the left".
"Estrada's ouster wasn't just a four-day affair", she said. "The campaign has been going on for well over 12 months. Throughout last year the left has kept up the street heat with a concerted campaign of organised mass actions — sometimes weekly and even daily. On May Day last year, for example, the central call of the left was for the ouster of Estrada."
"The left didn't have the social weight to prevent the trapo [traditional politician] government of GMA taking over at the end", Mohideen admitted. "The relationship of forces just wasn't there.
"But we did manage to prevent a coup. This is a very important point to note. A coup against Estrada was a very real possibility and this would have been a disastrous result for the mass movement. But instead of a coup, we had a people's revolt."
Mohideen said that the SPP was involved in "all the major campaigns and organising committees, all the street actions", including KOMPIL II, the social-democrat controlled organising committee that was responsible for the rally at the EDSA shrine. SPP leaders were on stage during the EDSA rally and addressed the rally on several occasions. Some SPP members were arrested during the upsurge and now face trial.
"We also attempted to strengthen the intervention of the left overall", Mohideen said, by participating in the Anti-Trapo Movement (ATM), which included all the left groups, apart from the Communist Party of the Philippines, and which planned joint demonstrations of the left which then marched to EDSA.
The exception to the positive role of the left, according to Mohideen, was the Communist Party of the Philippines, which backed Arroyo's party, Lakas-NUCD. The CPP is still the country's biggest and best-organised left party with a sizeable number of cadres, armed and unarmed, but "its collaborationist politics have prevented the further deepening of the struggle", Mohideen said.
Mohideen contrasted the CPP's role in the 1986 events to those this year. During the anti-Marcos people's power movement, she said, the CPP pursued "an ultra-left boycott line, isolated itself from the masses and handed the leadership of the movement to the ruling elite — but this was a genuine mistake.
"In 2001, however, they also handed the leadership of the movement to the ruling elite — but this time as a conscious policy. The CPP proclaimed their support for GMA as the next president and, at the same time, pursued a sectarian policy of refusing to work with any of the united left formations."
During the last few days at EDSA, when Estrada was still refusing to resign and there was a strong possibility of a coup, CPP leaders even went so far as to declare that they would support such a coup.
"This was a tremendous betrayal of the people's movement", Mohideen said. "The masses had already assembled in their hundreds of thousands at EDSA, willing to march to Malacanang palace and forcibly remove the president. The masses would have done this. They were waiting for the call. Instead the CPP leaders proclaimed their support for a coup."
Since Arroyo's swearing in as president on January 20, the direction of her government has been clear: she appointed "trapos" to her cabinet, she has spoken of the need for an austerity budget to cut the deficit and seems committed to the same pro-US, International Monetary Fund-dictated, neo-liberal program as Estrada.
Nevertheless, Mohideen believes there is "a huge difference" in how the masses perceived the 1986 post-Marcos government of Corazon (Cory) Aquino and how they view the post-Estrada government of Arroyo — and that this will make Arroyo's life very difficult.
"The mass illusions in Cory were very high in 1986. This is not the case with GMA. In fact, the mood of the masses is one of being wary of the GMA government. They didn't mobilise for her, but against Estrada", Mohideen explained. "Even when she was introduced as one of the speakers at EDSA the masses clapped politely. There was no euphoria.
"The fact is, and the masses know this, GMA hasn't done anything. She was vice-president under Estrada and did absolutely nothing. She was just a crafty politician who merely responded to the events and always with her eye on the prize — the presidency."
This situation will heavily condition what Arroyo can do in government. "The masses have few illusions in GMA, but their self-confidence is high. They brought down the government and GMA is beholden to them. That's how the masses see it. They know it can be done again and the more astute sections know that it is only a matter of time before there are rallies calling for the resignation of GMA."