By Reihana Mohideen
MANILA — With over 70% of the vote counted and a commanding lead of 4 million votes over his nearest contender, Joseph "Erap" Estrada has all but been declared the new president of the Philippines. He will be sworn in on June 30.
By contrast, Fidel Ramos won the 1992 presidential election by a very narrow margin.
Estrada's early pronouncements include "The poor must have an important place at the table" and the pledge to honour the economic program of the International Monetary Fund, which has directed the Philippines economy for the last 36 years. The "Ten Point Action Program" for Estrada's first 100 days promises "to continue the basic free market policies of the outgoing administration".
Estrada's "reforms" will include removing the 60% restriction on foreign bank ownership of local businesses; further liberalisation of foreign ownership and investment in retail trade, mass media and land ownership; and a commitment to continue deregulation and privatisation of infrastructure and the National Food Authority. At the same time, the new administration says it is committed to food security for the population.
A number of Marcos cronies are being offered top positions in government — a continuation of the Ramos government's practice. Former Marcos lawyer Estelito Mendoza was offered the position of justice secretary but declined. The labour secretary is from the Employers Confederation. Other key cabinet positions have been given to right-wingers such as banker Edgardo Espiritu, the new finance secretary.
The left is buzzing with anticipation of "progressives" entering the government. Estrada has communists-turned-social-democrats as advisers — people such as Horatio "Boy" Morales and Ed de la Torre.
Morales will be a member of the Estrada cabinet with the minor portfolio of secretary for agrarian reform. Morales and de la Torre are organising meetings with non-government organisations to "explain" the new government's policies.
Arlene Santos, head of the propaganda committee of the new left electoral formation Akbayan (Citizen's Action Party) told Green Left Weekly that the group is likely to win as many as three seats in congress under the "party list" system of proportional representation, in which 51 seats were reserved for "marginalised" groups. Santos is also a Political Council member of the independent socialist formation BISIG.
There may be a greater room for manoeuvre for the left under an Estrada administration, Santos said. "Because of the absence of a clear ideological framework, and because the people in his camp are diverse, Erap is more susceptible to different persuasions. Of course, this also means he can go to the far right depending on the balance of forces. So far he has supported the IMF package, and there is no conflict of interest in the placing of people in different departments — there is no anti-capitalist heading up the finance department, for instance."
Santos explained that Akbayan opposes Estrada's support for the IMF agreements. "We have been accused by our critics of being too critical. They say it's still early days yet. We based ourselves on his economic program, which is the continuation of the Ramos program. Of course, Erap is full of pro-people rhetoric, but rhetoric is not a program.
"But we also need to carefully position ourselves in relation to a very popular president. We have to maximise the openings provided. I am not as optimistic as de la Torre or Morales. We must use our muscle to put maximum pressure on an Erap administration. This was our attitude towards both the Cory Aquino and Ramos governments. Ultimately, we have to be guided by the government's program and its record."
Santos explained that the vote for the "party list" seats was low, just 20% of the total votes cast. The Commission on Elections (COMELEC) failed to carry out a voter education program on the new system. After counting began, COMELEC called on election officers to stop counting the "party list" votes because it was delaying the overall count.
Akbayan's success in winning seats resulted from its strength as a coalition. "We have socialists, social democrats, ex-national democrats [former Communist Party of the Philippines-aligned groups], popular democrats and independents in Akbayan. This coalition has given us a wide base and a wide spread."
This gave Akbayan an advantage over other progressive organisations such as Sanlakas. It is not yet clear if Sanlakas won the minimum percentage of votes necessary to take any seats. Sanlakas did very well in the National Capital Region around Manila, gaining the most "party list" votes in some municipalities, but it did not have the national spread of Akbayan or its resources.
Santos explained that Akbayan will use its seats in congress "to start to build a progressive bloc with other progressive groups that are likely to win some seats".
"The mass movement component of Akbayan now becomes even more important with our candidates in congress", Santos told Green Left Weekly. "The mass movement must conduct its own political campaigns and supply the legislative agenda. It has to put forward the sharpest and most critical positions.
"The mass movement must not be subservient to Akbayan parliamentarians. Legislators should never decide for the mass movement or make commitments for the mass movement."
Santos added that eventually there has to be "a more consolidated programmatic socialist agenda. Akbayan will help develop a socialist front. The working relationships established in Akbayan give us a good starting point."