By Norm Dixon
"We're advancing, we're heading for Kinshasa. That is our objective ... this is the time for Mobutu to go", declared rebel leader Laurent Kabila on April 8 before a crowd of 50,000 cheering supporters in Mbuji-Mayi, the capital of East Kasai province, just three days after the town was liberated. Less than 24 hours later, the young fighters of the Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire (ADFL), in their most significant victory yet, swept into Lubumbashi, Zaire's second largest city and capital of the vital Shaba province.
As the guerillas entered Lubumbashi, they were greeted with tumultuous applause and chants of "Kabila! Kabila!" as people flooded from their homes. Everybody sported white headbands, which have become the badge of the rebellion.
True to form, most government troops fled. A large number with heavy weapons joined the rebels. Mobutu's elite presidential guard, as well as forces seconded from the counter-revolutionary army of UNITA in Angola and the army of the genocidal former Rwandan regime, put up a fierce fight as they retreated. The rebels suffered their highest casualties yet in a single battle of the six-month rebellion, losing 17 fighters.
Mbuji-Mayi, in central Zaire, is the capital of Zaire's diamond industry. Shaba, in the south bordering Zambia, is dominated by the vast copper and cobalt mining industries. The two provinces account for more that 80% of the country's foreign earnings.
The liberation of Zaire's two key provinces gives the rebels a stranglehold on the economy. Only Kinshasa, the capital and Zaire's largest city with a population of 5 million, remains in government hands. Dissatisfaction there is widespread and an uprising is on the cards.
The west is nervous about Kabila and the ADFL. There is fear that the ADFL, bought to power in a popular uprising by a mobilised and politically confident population, may place the interests of the masses before those of the western powers.
Since before the fall of Kisangani on March 15, when it became apparent that the ADFL insurgency had snowballed into a nationwide revolution, Kabila has been under enormous pressure from the US, France, Belgium and the United Nations to halt the rebel advance, agree to a unilateral cease-fire and form a transitional government with elements of the Mobutu regime and the so-called "non-violent" opposition of Etienne Tshisekedi.
Washington hoped that elections to follow would be won by Tshisekedi. France, Belgium and sections of the UN bureaucracy continued to favour Mobutu's rule but recognised that power-sharing was the dictator's last chance to cling to power.
On the pretext of being ready to evacuate westerners, thousands of troops from the US, France, Belgium and Britain have gathered on Zaire's borders. Four hundred US troops are in Brazzaville, in neighbouring Congo, and in Gabon. Another 1300 marines are off shore. France and Belgium have deployed 900 troops in Brazzaville, and France has thousands more stationed in Africa.
Kabila on April 3 described the presence of foreign troops as a threat. "They could move in at any time. They don't recognise the sovereignty of our people", he warned.
The ADFL pointed out that the size of the force near Kinshasa was out of proportion to the number of westerners in Zaire. There is nothing to prevent them from leaving Kinshasa any time they choose, rebel spokespeople pointed out. The Zambian government has refused to allow Belgium to deploy 500 paratroopers near the southern border. Belgium has extensive mining interests in Shaba.
Another pressure on the ADFL are accusations of massacres and that the rebels are preventing the repatriation of 80,000 Rwandan refugees. On April 4 rebel spokesperson Gaetan Kakudji pointed out that the "alliance has already given all authority and all the permissions for humanitarian agencies to go and save the refugees. We don't understand why they continue to accuse us of creating a problem."
Edi Angulu, ADFL European spokesperson, explained that these claims are meant to discredit the "legitimate struggle of the Zairean people". Their purpose is to prepare foreign opinion for a military invasion.
Kabila has refused to halt the rebels' advance. While prepared to attend talks, first in Togo and then in Pretoria, the ADFL has continued to insist that Mobutu resign before a cease-fire.
Mobutu, under US and French pressure, appointed Tshisekedi to the largely powerless position of prime minister on April 2. "The president [Mobutu] and the prime minister must work hand in hand to bring the people to democratic elections", Tshisekedi stated after his promotion. Washington and Paris hoped Kabila would be more prepared to "share" power with Tshisekedi.
Tshisekedi offered the ADFL just six posts in his 19-member cabinet. In return, he demanded that they lay down their arms. Understandably the rebels rejected the offer. Tshisekedi and Mobutu are now "on the same ship", a rebel spokesperson told the London Financial Times. "If he wants to steer a wretched ship, he must learn to swim because it is going to sink".
As soon as it became clear that the rebels would not fall for the ploy, on April 9 Mobutu sacked Tshisekedi and replaced him with a military flunkey, imposed a state of emergency, detained the tame cat "opposition" leader and violently dispersed his supporters.
The sidelining of Tshisekedi left Washington with little choice but to openly disown Mobutu. White House spokesperson Mike McCurry urged Mobutu to resign, predicting that he would soon be "history". The Belgian foreign minister echoed Washington's call.
The US continues to push the ADFL to share power, and there is a danger that the US marines may enter Kinshasa to enforce such an arrangement. "The marines are standing by and at the ready in the event that they are called upon to help out", Pentagon spokesperson Michael Doubleday told reporters on April 10. "The US, along with others, is closely monitoring the situation and continues to urge the parties to commence negotiations that would lead to a cease-fire and end hostilities", McCurry added.
Kabila has other plans. Addressing supporters in Mbuji-Mayi, he said the "Liberation Army" was now more than 40,000-strong and that 15,000 "sons of the people" from Mbuji-Mayi were needed to march on Kinshasa. A cease-fire was out of the question, he announced, "until Mobutu signs his resignation".