By Helen Jarvis
PHNOM PENH — The unlikely coalition between the royalist Funcinpec and the formerly socialist Cambodian People's Party has fallen apart in a shoot-out in the streets of the capital.
The population that had endured so much misery and fear over more than 25 years was once again reduced to huddling inside their houses, or deciding that the horrors of the 1970s were here again and making a break through the fighting with a few precious possessions in hand.
Militarily, Hun Sen has certainly come out on top. Co-Prime Minister Ranariddh fled the country just before the fighting erupted.
He has sought and gained some support from Washington, New York and Paris, but seems unlikely to be in a position to mount any serious military resistance, despite the trek to the Thai border by various warlords and politicians who spent the best part of the 1980s fighting against Hun Sen in coalition with the Khmer Rouge.
The Khmer Rouge still deals many of the cards. It is hard to imagine that, nearly 20 years after the overthrow of their genocidal regime, the disaster of the past week was precipitated by manoeuvres to make military and political gains by winning over Khmer Rouge factions.
Hun Sen's government was formed from the overthrow of Pol Pot in 1979, and it rebuilt the country, ostracised and isolated from the west for having done this with the help of Vietnam.
Paris agreements
Finally, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the other eastern European nations giving financial support, and the withdrawal of Vietnamese forces in 1989, Hun Sen signed the Paris peace agreements in 1991, recognising the KR as a participant in the UN-supervised elections in 1993.
Despite having signed the agreements, the KR did not comply with a single one of their conditions, and boycotted the elections, with armed forces intact.
A strange coalition government was formed: the first prime minister, Prince Norodom Ranariddh, came from the party winning the most votes and second prime minister, Hun Sen, from the party that controlled most of the armed forces, police and civil service.
This "two-headed" structure was echoed down the line in the ministries, in provincial government and in the armed forces, where generals ran their own troops almost independently.
From the start, both sides had their eye on outdoing the other in time for the 1998 election, after which there would be a single party government.
Always in the background was the shadow of the Khmer Rouge. The first real dispute came in mid-1994, when the National Assembly passed a law to declare the organisation illegal, but allowing amnesty to any members coming across to the government.
The idea of amnesty for those who had committed crimes of genocide has been a difficult one to accept, but may have been the price that had to be paid to break the strength of the KR forces. Thousands did defect over the following two years, leaving much diminished forces around Ieng Sary in Pailin in the west and around Pol Pot, Khieu Samphan and Mok in Anlong Veng in the north.
Ieng Sary
In August 1996, Ieng Sary announced his defection. This brought a substantial new military and political force into the government, and both sides vied to win it over. No attempt was made to dismantle the organisational and military structures, and Ieng Sary continues to control the west of the country and heads a new political force, the Democratic National United Movement (DNUM).
It seems the original moves to bring in Ieng Sary were made by the CPP, but were endorsed by Funcinpec.
In early 1997, Funcinpec announced the formation of a new political alliance, the National United Front, to oppose the CPP in the next elections. The NUF was to include Sam Rainsy's Khmer Nation Party (an earlier split from Funcinpec). Overtures were made also to both Ieng Sary's DNUM and the remaining Khmer Rouge forces in Anlong Veng.
It is now clear that in the past months Funcinpec, particularly through its top general, Nhek Bun Chhay, has been taking extreme measures to build up its position. Regular communication was held with Khmer Rouge leaders, especially Khieu Samphan.
Hundreds or even thousands of Khmer Rouge soldiers were brought into the armed forces units controlled by Funcinpec. In addition, significant arms shipments were made. In late May, a container of weapons consigned to Ranariddh was uncovered, and since that time overt conflict between has been expected.
In mid-June a fire fight erupted between the two parts of the armed forces in the streets of Phnom Penh. At the same time, Ranariddh announced that the Khmer Rouge forces at Anlong Veng were in terminal disarray.
Photographs of the bodies of leaders Son Sen and Yun Yat were displayed. Pol Pot was said to be under detention and about to be turned over for trial, while Khieu Samphan was to be admitted to the government. Somehow Pol Pot was never actually proved to be in hand, and what deal was being cut with Khieu Samphan is not known.
It appears that Hun Sen decided to act before Funcinpec's weight was increased decisively by the addition of the remaining Khmer Rouge forces. On Saturday, July 5, key Funcinpec bases around the capital were surrounded and attacked. By the following day they were all in CPP hands, and Funcinpec leaders were in hiding or had fled.
Given the fire that Ranariddh was playing with, Hun Sen can scarcely be blamed for moving. But what followed has caused considerable damage to Hun Sen.
It is alleged that a number of Funcinpec leaders have been executed, including interior minister Ho Sok, reported to have been tortured and killed after having been taken into custody. In the provinces also there are reports of executions and of intimidation of Funcinpec and NGO workers.
Further, looting over the next few days has deeply shaken many people. Soldiers and police on both sides and also civilians joined in the spree.
International moves
Ranariddh's appeals for a renewed international isolation of the Cambodian government initially found considerable support.
ASEAN announced that it would defer indefinitely Cambodia's admission, which was planned for July 23. A number of countries, most significantly the United States, announced the suspension of aid. The US ordered the immediate departure of all its aid workers and their families.
Since 60% of the budget is estimated to come in the form of external aid, such moves could be catastrophic, and the loss of confidence inspired by the departure of so many foreigners and the closure of offices is adding to the sense of disquiet.
The United States is so far refusing to recognise the nominated replacement of Ranariddh as first prime minister (foreign minister Ung Huot).
Ranariddh is proposing that a provisional government be appointed with his own nominee as his replacement, and that the military command be surrendered to King Sihanouk (who has said very little from Beijing). Under such conditions, he would call off resistance on the border and participate in the elections next year.
Hun Sen has asked the ASEAN governments whether they wish to return to the situation of 1990, with his government isolated but in control of the country, and resistance forces on the border supported from abroad. If not, then a compromise has to be reached.
What will happen to the Khmer Rouge in any new arrangements is yet to be seen. But now is the time for initiatives to be taken to bring them into custody and to face trial.