Neville Spencer
Left-leaning presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has reiterated his call for a campaign of civil disobedience against electoral fraud, after the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) agreed only to a partial recount of votes from Mexico's July 2 presidential election. Lopez Obrador, who lost to right-wing candidate Felipe Calderon by just 0.58% according to provisional results, has been demanding a full recount.
Lopez Obrador stood in the election as the candidate of the For the Good of All coalition, of which his Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) is by far the major component. Calderon is the candidate of the right-wing National Action Party (PAN), to which current president Vicente Fox belongs.
In spite of its name, the PRD is a moderate social-democratic, rather than revolutionary, party. Nonetheless, Lopez Obrador has been explicit in claiming that his party would primarily represent the interests of the poor and has promised policies that are relatively left-wing in the context of global neoliberalism.
An increasing number of Latin American countries have elected left-leaning governments since the 1998 election of Hugo Chavez as Venezuela's president. This is very likely to be why the PRD has been bolder in projecting itself as a party of the left than it might otherwise have been. It is also why there is an increased anxiousness among both the Latin American elite and their Washington allies to halt this continental trend.
The fraud that took place in the July 2 election appears to have been widespread and varied in its forms. Ballot boxes from PRD strongholds have been found in a rubbish dump and electoral officials have been caught burning ballots. Numerous anomalies in the tallying of the votes have been pointed out, and suspicion has fallen on the software used by the IFE, which was designed by a company owned by Calderon's brother-in-law.
The complaint the PRD submitted to the IFE presented evidence of fraud taking place at around 72,000 of the 130,000 polling places. Lopez Obrador demanded that the IFE order a complete recount of the vote.
The IFE's response came on August 5. It agreed to a recount of the votes from only 9% of polling places. Other issues in the PRD's complaint to the IFE, such as violations of laws on electoral advertising and the PAN government's use of funds for social programs for electoral purposes, have yet to be ruled on.
In response to the fraud, Lopez Obrador has encouraged mass mobilisations of supporters and called for a campaign of civil disobedience. Protests have taken place around the country. The largest have been in Mexico City, growing from around half a million on July 8, to a million on July 16 and possibly more than 2 million on July 30.
Between demonstrations there has been an ongoing occupation of Mexico City's main square, the Zocalo. Large tents have been set up and the centre of the city has taken on a carnival-like atmosphere, with thousands of cultural acts, art displays and Mexico's ever-popular wrestling matches. Similar occupations are taking place in other towns and cities.
In one action, supporters of Lopez Obrador took over all the major toll roads leading into Mexico City, allowing free use of them for two hours.
Following the IFE's announcement of a limited recount, Lopez Obrador issued a letter to the people of Mexico. He condemned the refusal to conduct a full recount of the vote and called for an "extraordinary assembly" in the Zocalo on August 13.
The partial recount is due to be completed by August 13; the IFE has until September 6 to announce the official result. If the recount fails to put Lopez Obrador over the line, the popular anger that has been generated will not easily dissipate.
In the 1988 presidential election, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, the candidate of the social-democratic coalition out of which the PRD was formed the next year, is believed to have been robbed of victory by electoral fraud. Cardenas decided against mobilising supporters against the fraud.
Lopez Obrador has claimed that he does not want a repeat of 1988 and suggested that he won't ask supporters to demobilise and accept a fraudulent result. Since the 1994 Zapatista uprising in the southern state of Chiapas, Mexico's social movements have grown stronger and more combative and are unlikely to be as willing to back down as they were in 1988.
On July 31, the day following the 2 million-strong demonstration in Mexico City, at a ceremony for one of the brigades of the Mexican military, Fox reminded the armed forces of their duty to protect and support Mexico's "institutions and democracy". This was probably intended both as an appeal to the military to enforce the decision of the IFE if it declares Calderon as the official victor and as a threat to Lopez Obrador and his supporters if they carry their civil disobedience campaign too far.