By Chris Beale
A leak of plans to reshuffle army staff — reported in Bangkok's Nation newspaper — has revealed further evidence Thai generals are staging a "creeping coup" against the "pro-democracy" government of Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai.
This coup by stealth is aimed ultimately at smashing Thailand's increasingly strong trade union movement and strengthening military trade with the Khmer Rouge across the border in Cambodia.
General Chainarong Noonpakdi — who gave orders for troops to fire on unarmed demonstrators protesting against his brother-in-law General Suchinda's May 1992 attempt at becoming an unelected prime minister — is "set", according to the Nation report, to be promoted to army deputy chief of staff.
Noonpakdi's chief responsibilities will be overseeing intelligence work and civilian affairs.
Promotion will place Noonpakdi, whose sister is Suchinda's wife, directly in line next year to become army chief of staff — the crucial post from which Thailand's 17 coups since 1932 have been launched.
Thailand's current army chief is a fellow graduate of Suchinda's notoriously reactionary Class Five, from that breeding ground for coup-makers, Bangkok's elite Chulachomklao Military Academy.
Suchinda's generals have long been closely aligned to Noonpakdi's younger Class Nine officers.
According to the Nation report, this old school tie means the current army chief — soon to retire — is grooming Noonpakdi to step into his boots.
Thai media have linked Suchinda to heavy involvement in trade and political deals with the Khmer Rouge. While army supreme commander in 1991, Suchinda told London's Economist magazine it was time for Pol Pot to be treated "fairly".
In the same year, Suchinda led a coup ousting the civilian government of former General Chatichai Choonhavan, which had sought to turn Cambodia from a "battlefield into a marketplace".
Suchinda instead brought the killing fields to Bangkok.
During his attempt to crush the May '92 uprising, Suchinda moved so many troops from the Thai-Cambodia border that more soldiers were occupying Bangkok than guarding his border with the Khmer Rouge. As pro- and anti-Suchinda cracks began appearing within the Thai military, these border troops remained the bedrock of Suchinda's support.
Now as the Khmer Rouge step up their efforts at a comeback in Cambodia, their military allies are positioning to do the same in Thailand.
Australia is helping to pave the way for Noonpakdi. Plans were afoot to promote Noonpakdi last year, but stopped when Australia refused him a visa. Now, with public memories of Thailand's May '92 bloodbath fading — and Australia trying to clinch a lucrative deal selling Steyr rifles to the Thai military — Noonpakdi's visa ban has been lifted.
This diplomatic green light comes at a time when democracy activists and trade unionists are trying to oppose a "constitutional coup" by self-appointed military senators and pro-military opposition politicians. Launched on April 1 and dubbed "April Fools' Coup", its objective has been to ram through constitutional amendments overturning the central gain of the May '92 uprising: that all prime ministers be elected.
Chuan heads the first elected government since 1976 led by a prime minister not from a military background.
Described by Thai media and democracy activists as "a coup in broad-daylight" or "a coup without tanks", these constitutional changes also aim to gag press freedom.
Thailand has experienced an extraordinary era of press freedom during the past few years. Papers have been full of investigative reports covering peasant protests against dam-building, worker struggles for wage justice, environmental battles and police and bureaucratic corruption.
Journalist and other Thai unions — which have won some striking victories during the current "democratic experiment" — will be early victims if the generals' comeback succeeds.
When Suchinda launched Thailand's 17th coup in February 1991, one of his first acts was to smash public sector unions. Less than a year before, these had staged a highly effective shutdown of Bangkok's docks — blocking exports from the generals' vast business interests, including ill-gotten gains from the Khmer Rouge.
Soon after, Thanong Po-arn — the country's most prominent union leader — went "missing" while organising resistance to the coup. He has never been found.