Eva Cheng
Although Chen Shui-bian has won twice in Taiwan's three presidential elections by popular vote — ending the half-century, mainly military, rule of the Kuomintang (the KMT or Nationalist Party) — and his term isn't up until March 2008, there is an escalating campaign to unseat him.
The latest offensive started in August and is the third since June. It is led by two former chairpersons of Chen's own Democratic Progressive Party, including Shih Ming-teh, Taiwan's single most famous political activist, who was DPP chair from 1993-96. Sentenced to life imprisonment twice since 1964 for promoting Taiwanese independence and democracy, Shih — despite reductions in his prison terms through amnesty — spent 25 years in prison, including three years in solitary confinement. In 1979, Chen, then a human right lawyer, defended Shih in court in the aftermath of a mass pro-democracy protest that shook Taiwan.
Adding weight to Shih's initiative is Hsu Hsin-liang, DPP chairperson from 1991-93 and 1996-98. Hsu and Shih were DPP co-founders. Hsu left the party in 1999 and Shih in 2000.
Their joint offensive is potentially particularly dangerous for Chen because it seeks to mobilise the masses. It started on August 11 with a T$100-a-head fund-drive to raise a $100 million war chest to oust Chen, which reached its target unexpectedly early, 11 days later.
Next is a seven-day, round-the-clock sit-in starting September 9 outside Chen's presidential office in Taipei, culminating in a September 15 street march. Sit-in places are limited to 2300 at any one time. Individuals are limited to one hour each and need to pre-book, officially due to Taiwan's summer heat.
Shih's offensive was launched against the backdrop of a series of corruption and insider-trading accusations against Chen and his family over the last few months. None of these are proven yet, but they have battered Chen's already waning popularity.
The initial anti-Chen offensive took place in June, with KMT and People's First Party (PFP, a KMT splinter group and now a close KMT collaborator) parliamentarians seeking a vote to recall Chen from presidency. It failed.
Then in July, a group of scholars and social-movement activists who had previously supported Chen issued a call for Chen to resign on the basis that it would be the honourable thing to do.
At its party congress in July, while the DPP refrained from criticising Chen, it officially registered the damage the scandals surrounding Chen had done to the DPP. The DPP's electoral prospects suffered a blow during Chen's March 2004 re-election when he won by a razor-thin 0.1% margin over his sole (KMT) opponent. In contrast, in 2000 he won with 39.3% of the popular vote, as opposed to the 23.1% secured by his KMT opponent Lien Chan and the 36.8% by independent candidate James Soong, who now leads PFP.
In the legislative yuan (parliament) election in December 2004, the DPP again failed to win a majority, prompting Chen to resign as party chairperson. The DPP's 89 seats, even with the 12 seats of its fragile ally Taiwan Solidarity Union, fall short of the KMT-PFP's combined 113 seats, 79 of which the KMT won outright.