BY AHMAD NIMER
RAMALLAH — The inherent tensions in the US-sponsored "Road Map to Peace" have become all too apparent. The Israeli government has not ceased its acts of terrorism against the Palestinian population in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Seven Palestinians have been killed by Israeli soldiers in the last three weeks.
Town closures are still being enforced and Israeli military checkpoints remain in place. The "apartheid wall" — the 8-metre concrete wall that Israel is building to completely surround all Palestinian towns in the West Bank — continues to be constructed at an alarming rate. Israeli troops repeatedly invade Palestinian areas, carrying out arrests and searches of houses. Land confiscation for Israeli settlement construction and the apartheid wall continues.
Despite the fanfare that heralded Israel's redeployment from the north of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank town of Bethlehem, residents of these areas point out that nothing has really changed on the ground. While Israeli troops are not present in the centre of Bethlehem, new checkpoints have gone up just outside the city making travel in and out almost impossible.
This is the model that Israel always intended to pursue in order to control the Palestinian population: a minimal troop presence inside Palestinian population centres to avoid presenting a target to the Palestinian resistance movement, while controlling movement in and out of these areas through checkpoints and the wall.
Ceasefire holds
The final component to this system of control is a compliant Palestinian leadership willing to rule as a proxy for Israel inside Palestinian population centres. The Israeli-US "Road Map" is intended to deliver the creation of this collaborator regime. The absence of such a regime is the most difficult obstacle facing Israel's plan to divide the Occupied Territories into isolated enclaves.
The three-month ceasefire declared by the main Palestinian resistance groups — Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Fatah — has largely held over the last few weeks. While the other major wing of the resistance, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), did not sign the cease-fire, it indicated that it would not move against the consensus.
The logic behind the resistance groups' cease-fire declaration was to allow the Road Map to fail on its own account, while exposing the inevitable violence of Israel's occupation forces. It was designed to reveal the weakness of a strategy based solely on negotiations. The correctness of this tactic has been proven over the last few weeks.
The Palestinian Authority's prime minister Abu Mazen has been widely discredited for failing to bring any real improvement in the situation. Abu Mazen remains isolated and hugely unpopular, lacking any real support, even within his Fatah party. Attempts by the PA to disarm and imprison the resistance — the key demand of Israel, the US and the European Union — have been sporadic and almost impossible to achieve (apart from the arrest of a handful of activists in Gaza of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, one of the smallest Palestinian factions).
Arafat the survivor
Meanwhile, Palestinian President Yasser Arafat is again demonstrating his remarkable ability for political survival. Israel remains in a bind over how to deal with Arafat.
On one hand, if Israel was to expel or kill him, the PA would quickly fall apart and the ruling Fatah party would splinter into several factions. Without Arafat's final support, any negotiated agreement would probably not be attainable.
On the other hand, Arafat understands that an agreement that finalises an apartheid-like system of Palestinian "bantustans" would lack any support among the Palestinian people and would mean his political suicide. Despite the fact that he bears primary responsibility for the disastrous Oslo Accords, and for much of the corruption and nepotism within the PA, he remains strongly supported within Fatah for his apparent steadfastness.
Over the last few weeks, Arafat has been shoring up this support within Fatah and in the broader population. In the context of a devastating economic situation, Arafat's door remains open to virtually anyone seeking assistance. From all over the West Bank people have been visiting him to ask for financial assistance, employment in the PA or for scholarships for their children. Reportedly holding around US$1 billion outside of PA accounts, Arafat has been generous in fulfilling such requests — a particularly smart tactic for maintaining support, considering the inability of the PA to provide the people's basic needs.
One of Arafat's key supporters, Hani al Hassan, has become head of Fatah in the West Bank. From this position, al Hassan will also control Fatah at the city and village level.
On July 20, armed fighters from the loosely organised Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade in Jenin refugee camp kidnapped the governor of Jenin, Haider Irsheid. Irsheid, who is widely perceived as being corrupt, was seized in broad daylight and publicly humiliated by the Al Aqsa militants. They accused him of his "security coordination with the Israelis" and being "too close" and put him on trial.
While Abu Mazen and Mohammed Dahlan, the PA's Abu Mazen-appointed head of security, were powerless to do anything about the kidnapping, Arafat spoke directly with the kidnappers and secured Irsheid's immediate release.
Unwilling to surrender
The situation in Jenin is replicated all over the West Bank, most significantly in the north. PA security forces have not dared to move against the resistance movement, which retains wide popular support. Whole areas of the West Bank, particularly refugee camps in Nablus, Jenin and Tulkarem, remain off-limits to the PA. Despite the bloody invasions launched by Israel last year, and continued military attacks against these areas, the population remains armed and defiant and unwilling to surrender.
One of the most positive aspects of the second intifada (which began in September 2000) has been the increased coordination between the key resistance groups and the shared understanding that the armed-struggle option must be retained. Another positive development has been the split in Fatah between those, like Abu Mazen, who are willing to submit to Israeli dictates, and those, such as the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, who refuse to surrender.
At some point, there will inevitably be a confrontation between the Abu Mazen government and the resistance. Israel and the US realise that without demobilising and disarming the resistance they will not be able to achieve their objective of a Palestinian "state" of bantustans. Despite three years of bloody attempts to do so, Israel has not defeated the Palestinian people. Its last option is a desperate attempt to give the PA responsibility for tackling the resistance. For this reason, the next area slated for Israeli redeployment is Jenin, where the resistance remains strongest.
Prisoners
At the same time, the US is urging Israel to give some concessions in order to boost the popularity of Abu Mazen. A key test of this will be the release of Palestinian prisoners. Around 6000 Palestinian political prisoners are being held by Israel. Israel has made it clear it will not release prisoners who have been directly involved in resistance activities. Despite objections by the prisoners themselves, Abu Mazen's government has accepted this. In previous prisoner releases, Israel has let go prisoners arrested for non-political offences, those who had only a few days left of their sentences or those held without charge or trial under administrative detention orders.
While there will certainly be carrots provided by Israel to boost Abu Mazen's position, the stick is never far behind. Israel has made all travel between the West Bank and Jordan dependent on a security clearance issued by Mohammed Dahlan's office. This is aimed at strengthening Abu Mazen's control over the population, as Jordan is the only gateway available to Palestinians in the West Bank.
The temporary ceasefire is due to expire in September 2003, corresponding with the fourth anniversary of the second intifada. Given the current situation, it is widely expected that this date will see a renewal of the Palestinian uprising.
From Green Left Weekly, July 30, 2003.
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