BY JIM GREEN
The review conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) concluded on May 20 after a gabfest in New York which lasted almost a month.
The NPT explicitly allows five "declared" weapons states — the United States, Britain, Russia, France and China — to possess nuclear weapons. It also enshrines the "inalienable right" of all states to acquire equipment and materials for peaceful nuclear programs — even though much of the same equipment and materials can be used for bombs.
The five declared weapons states stitched together an agreement at the NPT conference which "unequivocally committed" them to "accomplishing" complete nuclear disarmament.
But no timetable was given for the commitment. The five states all plan to maintain their arsenals indefinitely. Moreover, implementation or progress on disarmament is conditional on it being done in a way that "promotes international stability" and "undiminished security".
The agreement is little more than hot air. Nevertheless, it was swallowed by the establishment press as a victory for nuclear disarmament.
The five declared weapons states also agreed to a moratorium on nuclear weapons testing, pending the formal ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). However, most or all of the major weapons states have programs of subcritical testing, combined with computer simulations, to maintain and upgrade their arsenals.
Superpower shenanigans
The US Senate voted not to ratify the CTBT last year, and the US maintains a program of subcritical testing and computer simulation. The US is also considering implementing a "national missile defence" system, which will spark a race for further weapons and missile technology development by states such as China and Russia. The missile defence system would almost certainly violate the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty.
The Russian Duma voted on April 14 to support ratification of the Strategic Arms Limitation and Reduction Treaty (START) II treaty with the US. The START I and II treaties do not require the destruction of strategic warheads; they only mandate that each country remove a portion of its arsenal from operational status.
Even if the START II treaty was fully implemented, the US would still maintain a force of about 10,000 nuclear weapons, including 3500 deployed strategic weapons, 500 weapons stored as strategic spares, 1000 tactical weapons and 2500 weapons held in a "hedge" force.
During discussions on the START II treaty, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia still possesses enough weapons to destroy an enemy "several times over". Ratification of START II would allow Russia to channel more funds into conventional weapons, Putin said.
Russian support for START II is conditional and will be withdrawn if nuclear weapons are deployed in any of the new NATO countries or if the US violates the 1972 ABM Treaty.
Putin warned that if the US violates the ABM treaty, Russia will "withdraw not only from the START II treaty, but from the whole system of treaties on limitation and control of strategic and conventional weapons".
The April 14 statement agreed to in the Russian Duma states that Russia reserves the right "to apply multifarious approaches to the development of its strategic nuclear forces" and to "ensure the preservation and development of the laboratory and experimental base and production capabilities, required to maintain the nuclear might and combat readiness of the strategic nuclear forces of the Russian Federation".
The week after its highly conditional ratification of the START II treaty, Russia's Duma voted to ratify the CTBT. Yet Russia plans to maintain its program of subcritical testing. Moreover, the decision on the CTBT was made in tandem with a decision to approve a new nuclear doctrine that reverses the country's earlier "no first use" commitment.
Nukes forever
US President Clinton has been trying to negotiate a "grand bargain" with Russia which would include provision for a US missile defence system and for further weapons reductions in a START III treaty. However, any proposal devised by Clinton's administration is likely to be rejected either by Russia or the US Senate.
During the NPT conference, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists publicised leaked US government documents which assure Russia that it need not worry about a national missile defence system because both countries would maintain "large, diversified, viable arsenals of strategic offensive weapons consisting of various types of intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers".
Leaked documents also outline plans to ensure that US nuclear weapons "remain viable forever" under the so-called "Stockpile Stewardship" program.
During the 1983 British election campaign, Tony Blair, then a member of Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND), said, "We don't need dangerous and costly Trident and Cruise missiles, which just escalate the nuclear arms race". Three years later he signed a CND advertisement supporting "the removal of all nuclear weapons from British territory".
Now, the New Labour government which Blair leads has commissioned a fourth Trident submarine. Each of its 48 warheads has a yield five times as powerful as the bomb that destroyed Nagasaki. British press reports cite "cabinet sources" saying that Blair has given Clinton assurances of support if the US missile defence system proceeds.
At the NPT conference, the UK was represented by CND member and New Labour MP Peter Hain. "The fact that I happen to be a passive CND member", Hain said, "doesn't at all conflict with my own strong commitment to the government's agenda."
Anzac Day plan
Foreign Minister Alexander Downer attended the NPT conference and presented an "Anzac Day Six Point Plan" covering the START treaties, the CTBT, stalled proposals for a fissile material cut-off treaty, safeguards measures, and nuclear export controls.
Rebecca Johnston, from the Acronym Institute, a non-government organisation observing the NPT conference, said Downer's plan was "so modest it almost fell backwards". Margaret Reynolds, another NGO observer at the conference, said, "The six-point plan could be fully implemented and we would still have nuclear weapons. It's simply not good enough. We need to be sure that these sort of measures are being put in place within a framework of nuclear weapons abolition."
A group of Pacific nations argued for modest measures in relation to shipments of radioactive waste through their region. These measures did not call for the prohibition of transport of nuclear materials, but simply for notification of shipments and agreements in the event of an accident. Delegates from various countries, including Japan, France, Britain and Australia, secured the deletion of the text put forward by the Pacific nations.