Harry Huijsmans, Amsterdam
A resounding 62% of Dutch voters rejected the European Constitution in the May 31 referendum, with a turnout of 63% of those eligible to vote. This margin — even greater than the May 29 vote in France, where 55% voted no — was a big defeat for Dutch PM Jan Peter Balkenende, who heads a government comprising a coalition of Christian-Democrats (CDA) and conservative liberals.
Although the vote was not binding, the government has had no other option than to pull back from ratification. 'No' from the people from two founding EU countries marks a crack in the process of legitimisation and consolidation of neoliberal restructuring that corporate Europe is looking for. It has led to an atmosphere of crisis in the European ruling circles and to frantic discussions about how to proceed.
The media has been blaming the result on the same factors it blamed for the 2002 election of right-wing (subsequently assassinated) politician Pim Fortuyn: distrust of mainstream politicians, xenophobia, fear of the uncertainties for the globalised future. There are certainly elements of truth in this, but there is also a big difference.
Today there is a clearer dislike of free-market reforms and an awareness that the policies of the EU are in essence the same as the much disliked policies of the Balkenende government, which has an all-time low approval rating of 19%. The deep distrust of the EU started with the introduction of the Euro, which had strong inflationary effects, especially upon basic goods, despite the denials of finance minister Gerrit Zalm.
The no vote is as much a second upheavel, after the Fortuyn revolt, as it is a continuation of the social protest that had its climax on October 2 last year when 300,000 people marched through Amsterdam against the reform agenda of Balkenende. And the main beneficiary now is not a new right-wing movement, but the left-wing Socialist Party (SP), the leading force in the no campaign.
When you take a closer look at the results, there is a clear class component. The wealthy towns, districts and villages had a high percentage of yes votes. The working-class regions and the big towns rejected the constitution. The one exception was the city of Utrecht, where the left-liberal party Groen Links, which supported a yes vote, is strong. People with lower and middle incomes voted against the constitution with a majority of 68% to 71%. People with high incomes voted almost 50/50. There was also a bigger no vote from women than from men.
In the weeks leading up to the referendum, the elite politicians tried every possible trick to scare people into a yes vote. For example, justice minister Piet Hein Donner said there was a danger of new wars in a Europe without a constitution.
Before the campaign, Labour Party (PvdA) leader Wouter Bos (who supported a yes vote) was the unchallenged — if lacklustre — leader of the opposition. This changed during the campaign, however, because the left-wing Socialist Party had a well-prepared and spirited campaign against the constitution, which linked up with the feeling of discontent amongst PvdA voters. Bos tried to change the mood by emphasising minor social clauses in the EU constitution — put there as a concession to social democracy and the trade union leadership. But he couldn't take away a general feeling of unease about the way Europe is taking shape.
Several times during the campaign he felt obliged to strike out at the SP. In a big interview in the major daily newspaper, De Volkskrant, he said there was no future for a PvdA/GroenLinks/SP government after the next general elections, something that is very popular with the voters for these parties. His own electorate voted in large numbers against the constitution. Unlike in France, however, no major establishment party leaders defected to the no camp.
Despite government pressure, the main trade union federation, FNV, refused to actively campaign for a yes vote. FNV's endorsement of the constitution was mostly known only because government members cited it every time they debated the left.
Although freemarket anxiety is strong, it would be a mistake to see the rejection purely as an expression of anti-neoliberalism. Discussion around the EU directive on free circulation of services — under which all services, including health and education, must be subject to the market as commodities — was less prominent than it was in France.
Right-wing populist Geert Wilders tried to stir up anti-Muslim feelings by taking a stand against Turkey joining the EU. He wasn't able to get himself centerstage, but his arguments played a role. The small Dutch orthodox protestant community played some role in the debate by emphasising the protestant-national identity of the Netherlands. And a broader fear of loosening national identity was certainly at work — including the fear of losing relatively liberal drug and euthanasia laws. The Socialist Party, the strongest in the no camp, took a strong stand against all the neoliberal pro-market policies.
According to a survey by pollster Maurice de Hond in early June, the yes camp has taken a popularity blow. If there were to be elections now, de Hond found that the three coalition parties would count together only 53 of the 150 seats. More strikingly, PvdA would lose all the popularity it has won since Balkenende came to power, falling back instead to 41 seats, nine less than it was polling before the referendum, and one seat less than they have now.
The poll found that most of these votes would go to the SP, which would be the big winner if there were elections now. It won nine seats last elections, was polled at 14 before the referendum and is now polling at 21. Other winners would be Wilders who was polled at five seats before the referendum and now at 11, and the Dutch orthodox Christenunie, which is polled at nine seats (up from five). If this was a real result then the SP would become the third party in parliament and a direct challenge to the dominance of the PvdA.
Of course, this is just a survey and it will take another two years before there are new elections. One thing is clear: the SP is becoming an increasingly important factor in Dutch politics and is key to building a left alternative to the pro-market PvdA and trade union leadership.
From Green Left Weekly, June 22, 2005.
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