BY SEAN HEALY
The architects of an integrated, capitalist Europe were dealt a stunning blow on June 7 when a clear majority in Ireland voted to reject the Treaty of Nice, the blueprint for the European Union's expansion.
The "yes" case in the referendum was supported by the entire Irish political establishment — Prime Minister Bertie Ahern's Fianna Fail party, the conservative opposition Fine Gael, the Irish Times, the Catholic Church, the Irish Business and Employers' Confederation and even the Irish Congress of Trade Unions.
All argued that a rejection of the treaty would signify that Ireland had turned its back on Europe and the world, and claimed that it would hurt the poor in the countries in Eastern Europe seeking admission to the EU.
Ahern decried opponents of the treaty as "hardliners of the extreme right and extreme left", while his trade minister called them the "hard left" whose "wild views" were little more than "scare-mongering".
Despite the establishment's best efforts, only 46% of voters endorsed the "yes" case, with 54% voting to reject the treaty. Only two electorates voted in favour. The turnout was 34%, the second lowest for any referendum in the state's history.
Victory belonged primarily to a diverse, grassroots coalition of pacifists, Irish republicans, socialists and greens. "This is a victory for all who value Irish democracy, sovereignty and neutrality", said Sinn Fein parliamentarian Caoimhghan O'Caolain.
"The political elite has suffered a significant setback. This is a vote to retain democratic control in the hands of Irish elected representatives. It is a vote against the drive to an EU super-state and a two-tier EU dominated by the large states."
The French Riviera town of Nice was the site of massive, 70,000 strong demonstrations in December when leaders of the 15 member-states of the EU met to agree on the terms of the Treaty of Nice.
The treaty introduces "qualified majority voting" (QMV) into EU structures, a system which privileges the five largest member-states Britain, France, Germany, Spain and Italy.
Under the scheme, Ireland and other smaller member-states are to lose the right to automatically appoint a commissioner to the European Commission and the right to veto EU policy in a wide range of areas.
One such area where QMV and the removal of member-states' vetoes will radically change things is in trade policy. The Greens' environment spokesperson, Mary White, said the changes "will only strengthen the hands of lobbyists of transnational corporations, and of the EU Trade Commissioner, to push through the agenda for a new trade round and more de-regulation. It will enable negotiations to be 'fast-tracked', away from democratic scrutiny."
Real agenda
Socialist Party MP Joe Higgins said, "The real agenda of the Nice Treaty is to consolidate and extend the massive economic power of the multinational corporations based in the EU."
Irish voters were just as strongly opposed to Ireland's membership of the treaty-mandated European Rapid Reaction Force, the likely forerunner to an EU permanent standing army. Ireland has a strong tradition of neutrality and of avoiding engagement in foreign wars.
"If you have a force of 60,000, these lads can be sent anywhere", argued the Peace and Neutrality Alliance's Roger Cole, launching the group's "no" campaign. "We have been here before. We were part of a world power ... [Irish people] don't want to die for Europe."
Most "no" campaigners rejected Ahern's claims that a vote against the Treaty of Nice was a vote against Eastern European countries seeking EU membership, including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.
Green Party parliamentarian Trevor Sargent, launching his party's "no" campaign, said, "The government's attempts to sell the Nice Treaty as the Treaty of Enlargement is a marketing ploy, an attempt to divert attention from the real substance of the Treaty."
His colleague, Euro MP Patricia McKenna, added, "Enlargement is not what Nice is about. For a so-called Treaty about Enlargement ... , there is very little in Nice that addresses the real adjustments required in the Treaties to successfully accommodate up to 27 member-states."
However, greens, socialists and republicans were not the only opponents of the Treaty of Nice. While not the major force in the "no" campaign, it appears that at least one section of voters rejected the treaty for xenophobic reasons.
Right-wing groups, including anti-abortionists and supporters of ultra-nationalist Euro MP Dana (Rosemary Scallon) — Ireland's answer to Pauline Hanson — also campaigned against it. Scallon's opposition rested heavily on claims that Irish farmers did not want their subsidies being transferred to farmers in Poland.
Spanner in the works
The referendum result is a major spanner in the works for the European Commission and for those governments most keen to fast-track the changes to the EU's structure. It all but derailed the EU's summit in the Swedish city of Gothenburg on June 15-16, which was supposed to discuss further streamlining measures.
The rejection has also given a boost to social movements resisting continental capitalist integration, not least the coalition of several thousand people from across Europe who protested in Gothenburg during the summit.
Europe's senior political leaders have vowed that popular rejection in one country will not deter them from their plans or force a renegotiation of the treaty's terms.
Even before the final votes were in, European Commissioner for Enlargement Guenter Verheugen had declared, "If the majority would be against the Nice treaty ... it would not affect the enlargement process. We would continue with the same speed and the same quality."
"Such a referendum in one country cannot ... block the biggest and most important project for the political and economic future of the united Europe", he said.
Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson, the present chairperson of the EU, and European Commission president Romano Prodi issued a joint statement immediately after the announcement of the result promising to "pursue the enlargement negotiations with undiminished vigour and determination".
Ireland is the only one of the 15 member-states of the EU required to hold a referendum. The other 14 member-states will not submit the treaty to a popular vote but will instead simply put it to a vote of parliament. This makes the treaty's ratification a foregone conclusion.
In Ireland, Ahern and the political establishment are already seeking ways to overturn, or at least subvert, the people's decision. Despite his embarrassed promise to "listen" and "reflect deeply on how [the people's issues with the treaty] are addressed", Ahern has stated that he is still committed to the Nice treaty.
It is likely that the treaty will be put to another referendum later in the year, in the hope that the Irish political establishment can get the result it wants.