Rohan Pearce
On March 16, Iraq's new 275-member National Assembly met for the first time since US-sponsored elections were held on January 30. The parliament met inside Baghdad's Green Zone — the US-controlled area that houses most of the occupation regime's administrative apparatus and foreign embassies. Despite being the "safest place in Baghdad", the convention centre hosting the meeting was attacked with mortars shortly before proceedings began.
The meeting epitomised the essence of capitalist democracy — the newly elected parliamentarians made grandiose speeches, while outside US corporations and coalition troops ran the show.
An Iraqi government is yet to be formed, with negotiations between the three main factions, none of which have an outright majority, so far unable to construct a coalition, despite all agreeing that the US occupation will continue.
The largest force in the assembly is the Shiite-dominated United Iraqi Alliance, which won 140 seats and around 49% of the vote (although at a February 18 meeting in Olympia former weapons inspector Scott Ritter accused the US of "cooking" the election results to reduce the UIA's vote to prevent it from forming government independently). The UIA was backed by Iraq's most revered Shia cleric, Iranian-born Grand Ayatollah Ali al Sistani.
The second largest force in the parliament is the Democratic Patriotic Alliance of Kurdistan, which won about 26% of the vote (75 seats). The DPA is an alliance of the two main pro-US Kurdish parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), with former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party and a number of smaller Kurdish groups.
The Iraqi List, led by former CIA employee and Baathist assassin Iyad Allawi, won 40 seats (around 14% of the vote). Allawi was installed as Iraq's interim prime minister by the US during the "handover of power" in June.
The US has ensured the assembly will be virtually powerless to challenge Washington's interests. For example, the administrative law that is acting as a constitution, states that "Except as otherwise provided in this Law, the laws in force in Iraq on 30 June 2004 shall remain in effect unless and until rescinded or amended by the Iraqi Transitional Government in accordance with this Law".
Modifying these laws requires a three-quarters majority; a provision that gives the White House an effective veto over any attempt by the Iraqi parliament to demand, for example, that the occupation ends. The election of a prime minister will take a two-thirds majority. Thus the pro-US Kurdish parties will be able to block any legisaltion that challenges Washington's interests.
This gerrymander, however, appears to be overkill. The UIA leadership has indicated its willingness to work within the framework of the US occupation. There are even rumours that the UIA invited Allawi to join the Shiite alliance in a coalition government.
Short of a deal that would see Allawi return as prime minister, the most likely candidate to lead the new government is the UIA's Ibrahim Jaafari, a member of the Islamic Dawa Party. An March 16 online article by the BBC reported that "an opinion poll last year suggested Mr Jaafari was Iraq's most popular politician", but he was still less popular than Sistani and Moqtada al Sadr, the Shiite cleric who led armed uprisings against the occupation.
Rory Carroll interviewed Jaafari for the February 24 British Guardian. He reported that Jaafari's response to questions about how long US troops should remain in Iraq was: "They should stay as long as they are needed to bolster security, he says, which could mean they will be asked to leave in a few months, years or decades." Until close to the eve of the elections, the UIA had called for a "timetable" for the occupation's end. Sadr has called on the parliament to set a deadline for the withdrawal of foreign troops.
From Green Left Weekly, March 23, 2005.
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