By Nick Rawson
There has been a great deal of incorrect and biased information circulating in the media regarding the political situation of Cuba and the United States.
According to recent media reports, a mass migration of Cubans towards the US and a small anti-government demonstration in Havana signal the collapse of the Cuban government before a wave of popular protest.
Apparently we should believe that the Cuban government will fall like those of Eastern Europe. Unfortunately for those in the US who are working towards such an outcome, the events of the past few weeks will strengthen the hand of the Cuban government, particularly in the medium to long term.
Last week the US Coast Guard was intercepting between 1500 and 3500 Cuban "boat people" per day, all heading for the US. Media reports have largely portrayed this as an outpouring of popular discontent against the government, sometimes suggesting that many of these people are leaving because of political persecution. Generally this is not the case; most are economic refugees.
What is being played out at the moment recalls the 1980 "Mariel boatlift", when the Cuban government allowed an uncontrolled, free for all migration, resulting in more than 100,000 migrants landing in the US.
Like other poor countries of Latin America, Cuba has a certain number of people who would like to make a new life in the US, where many Cubans already have family amongst the 1 million Cuban-Americans. This is recognised by the Cuban government, which does not restrict the right of its citizens to travel and migrate.
The problem really lies in US policy. After the 1980 Mariel boatlift, the US and Cuba signed an agreement which allowed for 20,000 Cubans to legally migrate to the US each year, particularly for the purpose of family reunion. The US has consistently failed to honour this agreement; on average it has allowed fewer than 2000 Cubans to migrate legally per year.
However, the US has vigorously promoted illegal immigration — without passports, visas and safe means of travel. This has been achieved by the CIA-funded Radio Marti and TV Marti, which both urge Cubans to flee the supposedly totalitarian regime of Fidel Castro, and by the US policy of automatically granting residence to illegal Cuban migrants. The US government has used these people for its own propaganda against the Cuban government.
Can you imagine the same happy reception for the thousands of Mexican migrants who try to enter the US illegally each year, only to be beaten and sent back? US immigration policy towards Cuba is at variance with its policies towards every other Latin American country.
The Cuban government has discouraged this illegal migration. In effect, it has been acting as coast guards to the US, in accordance with its obligations under international law.
The effect has been a build-up of Cubans who wish to leave Cuba but for whom the only possibility was to risk their lives in the Florida Strait.
The number of Cubans wishing to leave has risen sharply in the last four years as the Cuban economy has contracted by around 40%. Again, the US bears a degree of responsibility for this. The Torricelli Act of 1993 tightened the 35-year-old US embargo of Cuba by including subsidiaries of US companies in other countries in the trade ban. Cuba is being denied aid, investment, international loans and market access not only in the US but in other countries too, through the persuasive power of the US government and the CIA. Furthermore, Cuba's trade with the countries of eastern Europe has contracted by 85% due to political pressure and economic crisis in those countries.
The Cuban government has shown that it is no longer willing to protect the borders of the US. Realistically, the Cuban government has less to lose than the US. By allowing this tide of migration, the Cuban government is relieving that pool of unhappy, dissatisfied people.
The US government does not want to deal with these people but will be under pressure from the Cuban-American community to accept at least a portion of them. The rhetoric of the US government has until now portrayed these people as political refugees. It will take a tremendous about-face to contradict this and forcibly repatriate them to Cuba.
In other words, the US is in something of a bind caused by the consequences of its own policies. In the medium to long term, this will strengthen the hand of those who wish to normalise relations with Cuba. These are the more far-sighted politicians who recognise that Cuba is not a threat to the US and that present US policies aimed at starving Cuba to its knees can only be detrimental to both Cuba and the US.
The short-term response of the US has been different, however, with a toughening of both the rhetoric and the economic blockade. Cuban-Americans will no longer be able to send money to their families in Cuba, amounting to around $400 million a year. Radio Marti and TV Marti will have their support increased to beam anti-government propaganda into Cuba, and the US will campaign in the United Nations against the Cuban government. All this is aimed at isolating Cuba and pushing the Cuban people to the point of starvation where they will rise up against their government.
The reality is different. Diplomatically it is not the Cuban government but the US government which is isolated. At the United Nations last year, the US blockade was condemned by 87 votes to 3. Furthermore, Cuba's relations with the rest of the world have been improving rapidly since the collapse of eastern Europe.
Within Cuba, the government has the overwhelming support of the people; it is only a small minority which wishes for a US-sponsored government. The infrastructure of organisations which support the government is very strong, and the government's faith in the population is revealed by the fact that the Cuban people make up the armed forces: all Cubans over the age of 16 have access to arms. US hostility is only likely to further unify these people in their determination to resist the US.
In the long term, the US will be forced to come to some kind of accommodation with Cuba, as it has done with Vietnam. It is not only the senselessness of its own policies or the condemnation of the international community which will force this, but the public opinion of the Cuban-American community. A large and growing number of expatriate Cubans and of young Cuban-Americans do not favour starving Cuba to its knees. The present wave of migration will strengthen this trend.
The most conservative elements of the US government are pursuing a policy designed to force the Cuban government from power, by military force, if necessary.
However, the strength of the Cuban government and international and domestic opposition will in the medium to long term strengthen the position of those in the US who favour a less aggressive policy.
As long as the Cuban economy can withstand the numerous pressures of the US economic blockade, the US will be forced sooner or later to change its aggressive and illegal policies towards Cuba.
[Nick Rawson is secretary of the Sydney Australia Cuba Friendship Society.]