By Max Lane
As counting of votes in Indonesia's June 7 election continues, more and more reports are emerging of vote rigging and cheating by the ruling Golkar party. The University Rectors Network for a Fair Election identified electoral violations in more than 20% of the 2590 villages it monitored.
Among the violations were intimidation, violence and the use of fake ballot papers. In some areas, election monitors reported that village chiefs had threatened people. In numerous districts, the total number of votes has been greater than the number of registered voters.
In the provinces of North Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, South-east Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Bengkulu (in Sumatra) and West Sumatra, there have been demonstrations demanding a re-run of the election. There have been similar demonstrations in Surabaya, East Java.
In North Sulawesi, the election commission has announced that there will be a repeat election, but this has yet to be agreed by the national authorities. Some recounts have also been ordered in Jakarta.
With such methods, Golkar may be able to claw its way to second place after Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P).
The Golkar-dominated outgoing parliament established a gerrymander that gives the less populated outer provinces, where reformasi has not yet reached and the Golkar-military-civil service machine remains relatively intact, a disproportionately high number of seats.
Although Golkar may lag 15-25% behind the combined vote of the PDI-P and Abdurrahman Wahid's National Awakening Party (PKB), it may have almost the same number of seats in the new parliament.
Popular rejection of Golkar
The combined vote of the PDI-P, PKB and the other large anti-Golkar party, Amien Rais' National Mandate Party (PAN), is likely to climb beyond 60%. These parties campaigned as an anti-"status quo" (anti-Golkar) coalition. If PDI-P, PKB and PAN can reach agreement, they can exclude Golkar from government.
The Muslim United Development Party (PPP), whose chairperson remained in President B.J. Habibie's cabinet until just before the election campaign started, also did everything it could to distance itself from Habibie.
It demanded the release of People's Democratic Party (PRD) leader Budiman Sujatmiko and issued a joint communiqué with other parties saying that it would not support Habibie for president later in the year. The PPP's vote of around 10%, plus that of a range of small parties including the Islamic Justice Party, which may win a parliamentary seat, would bring the anti-Golkar vote to close to 80%.
Suharto's old allies
A striking feature of the elections was the inability of new liberal democratic, social democratic and radical parties to score significant votes. This was true even when they were led by people with a high media profile, such as Muchtar Pakpahan's National Workers Party (PBN) or Sri Bintang Pamungkas's United Democratic Party (PUDI). Despite its high profile, including in the media, the PRD, the country's main party of grassroots activism, received a small vote.
It is likely that only five parties — PDI-P, Golkar, PKB, PPP and PAN — will score more than 2% of the vote. According to the elections legislation passed by the outgoing parliament, only parties that win more than 2% of the vote can participate in future elections.
The five big parties are all related to the political parties that backed Suharto's seizure of power in 1965-6. Golkar was established by the military in 1962 and became the ruling party after Suharto seized power.
The PKB is based on the Nahdatul Ulama (NU), a mass rural-based Islamic party that also supported Suharto's takeover and helped suppress the Indonesian Communist Party and other left-wing supporters of former President Sukarno.
The PPP and PAN are primarily based on the networks of the old Masyumi party, which also backed Suharto. PAN contains a network of intellectuals whose political lineage and outlook are linked to the networks of the defunct Indonesian Socialist Party, which worked closely with the military in 1965-6.
The PDI-P is based on the Sukarnoist Indonesian National Party (PNI). The PNI was divided in 1965, one section supporting the left and one supporting the military. Thousands of left-wing Sukarnoists in the PNI were killed or jailed, leaving the party in the hands of the right.
These forces concentrated in the PDI and PPP during the Suharto period, although the NU left the PPP in the 1980s to become a "social" rather than political organisation. They were gradually edged out of power by Suharto.
While Suharto manoeuvred constantly to keep these parties marginalised, they were able to maintain their infrastructures, as has been confirmed by the election results, because they were part of the Suharto system.
Radicals make gains
The PRD is not yet in a position to challenge the organisational dominance of the big parties. The PRD decided to stand only 31 candidates in specific areas. The big five stood candidates in all 462 seats.
The PRD was the only radical democratic party contesting the election. In a period of only a few months, it expanded its presence from 12 to 86 towns. The PRD's membership has expanded many times over. It faces a huge challenge in educating and consolidating its new members.
The PRD has consolidated its status as a legal party, with scope to expand its organisation throughout the country. It has won widespread popular respect and authority as the main grassroots, campaigning political party. During the election campaign, its actions in solidarity with striking workers received media coverage and popular recognition.
Outside the PRD, radical sections of the student movement boycotted the election, organising protests against the government and in support of the demand for Suharto to be put on trial.
The 10 million or so workers in the big industrial estate areas have remained isolated from the political upheavals of the last several months. Most have not been drawn into the political mobilisations of the PDI-P, PKB or the PAN. Most of the hundreds of thousands of people who joined these parties' election rallies were unemployed, casual labourers, shop assistants and street peddlers from the poor areas of Indonesia's big and middle-sized cities.
While strike statistics have dropped since the economic crisis hit Indonesia in late 1997, workers' protest actions have continued and have regularly become major issues on the national political agenda.
Even as the election count was taking place, several hundred workers from Surabaya travelled the 15 hours to Jakarta to protest outside the labour ministry. The detention of more than 100 of the workers was reported in the national media. <>255D>