German Green resurgence
By Steve Walker
Spectacular local election results for Germany's Green Party have thrown calculations about the likely result of the October 1994 general election into turmoil.
In the March 20 elections in the state of Schleswig-Holstein, the Greens won 10.3% of the vote. This followed a score of 13% in Lower Saxony on March 13, and a similar result in the Hamburg city elections last September.
Figures like these are unlikely to be repeated in a national election, but compared with the last four years of falling popularity represent a strong comeback by the Greens.
There is now even speculation that in October they will come third — behind the ruling Christian Democrats (CDU) and Social Democrats (SPD), but ahead of the traditional "third" party Free Democrats (FDP), currently government coalition partners with the CDU.
For most of the postwar period neither the SPD nor CDU has won enough votes to govern alone; both have relied on coalitions with the FDP. If the FDP is pushed into fourth or even fifth place, it will be an unlikely coalition partner.
Ludger Volmer, co-leader of the Greens, says that his party's resurgence puts it on course to enforce a "red-green" coalition government on the SPD, which currently enjoys a 6% opinion poll lead over the CDU.
Further complications in calculating the possible October outcome are the potential vote for the far-right Republicans and the left-wing PDS (Party of Democratic Socialism), whose main strength lies in the east. Both are expected to exceed the 5% threshold necessary for parliamentary representation, giving both a minimum of 20 deputies.
Beyond the electoral arithmetic lies the growing likelihood of defeat for Chancellor Helmut Kohl's CDU. Economic recession and 5 million unemployed, in part caused by the costs of German reunification, are likely to propel the SPD into government. The question is who it would choose as coalition partner. Both the Greens and the FDP are deeply divided on the issue of co-government with the SPD.