Thousands of Guatemalan refugees in Mexico are thinking of returning home. MIKE KAY reports from Guatemala.
In 1981 the military regime of General Lucas Garcia began what was, even by Guatemalan standards, an incredibly brutal counterinsurgency campaign. It was later expanded by his successor, General Ríos Montt.
A total of 400 communities were razed and 15,000 civilians massacred between 1980 and 1982 alone. Those who survived were left without livestock, crops or houses, and more than 1 million people were internally displaced.
An estimated 200,000 Guatemalans fled the country. Close to 44,000 "official" refugees (those registered by the United Nations) are currently living in Mexican camps in the districts of Chiapes, Campeche and Quintana Roo along the frontier with Guatemala. In the last two years there has been an increasing desire among the refugees to return home, even though the experiences of previous repatriations do not encourage it.
Responding to the election of a civilian government in 1986, many returned only to find that their lands had either been occupied by other campesinos or were in areas declared off limits by the army. No provision had been made for finding them alternative land or work and this, combined with the lack of government assistance, meant that returnees often lived in conditions of extreme poverty.
Some villagers resented the fact that the refugees had fled to Mexico and feared that their return would herald a new wave of violence. Others denounced them as guerillas; this resulted in more than one refugee being killed.
Returnees were invariably discriminated against in some form or another: tighter restriction on their movements, forced labour, fines, physical abuse and double tours of duty in the "voluntary" Civil Defence Patrols were not uncommon.
When news reached Mexico of conditions facing the returnees, enthusiasm for repatriating waned 2 repatriations were once again up to the peak levels of 1988.
This reflects, not an improvement in the human rights situation in Guatemala, but the economic crisis in some of the refugee camps, which has intensified due to last year's drought and the increased cost of renting land.
The poor quality of land (particularly in Campeche) makes refugees despair that they will ever be able to do more than break even, and they worry about how they will buy fertiliser when the aid is cut off. Under these conditions many are prepared to risk a return.
The refugees' representatives in the talks with the government, the Permanent Commissions (CCPP), have been trying to speed up the negotiations. The CCPP have reached agreement with the government on four out of six demands, but still pending discussion are the most vital issues of land, security and respect for civilian authority.
The CCPP have already delayed the return several times while trying to secure these guarantees and set up an international organisation to verify that the government complies with its commitments.
The earliest possible date for the repatriation of the first 5000 people is now estimated to be August, and some refugees have lost patience and opted to return on their own. If these individual repatriations continue to increase, it threatens to undermine the CCPP's bargaining power for an organised mass return, which is the only way to provide real protection for the refugees. But the question remains: are conditions right for a large-
scale return?
The fact that the CCPP and the government have been discussing the return for over a year and have signed agreements should prevent many of the problems of 1987-88. The number of refugees involved, the considerable international support and the fact that many of the problems regarding land, housing, transportation, credit, have already been anticipated should also contribute to a smooth return.
The government will want to avoid any incidents which might threaten the delivery of millions of dollars' worth of aid for the refugees. This money ervices and infrastructure, which of course benefit the country as a whole. The armed forces, unfortunately, do not evaluate the situation in the same way as the government.
Army representatives have said on various occasions that they consider the refugees to be members of the URNG [National Revolutionary Unity of Guatemala] or at best sympathetic to it. Obviously, the army does not relish the thought of having 5000 "subversives" (with 40,000 more potentially ready to follow) return to contested zones where they will be receiving large amounts of money to help them develop and prosper.
A mass repatriation threatens to create an organised, unified community of people who are determined to live outside military control and have the means to do it. This constitutes a major "security" threat in the minds of the armed forces.
Furthermore, the army is independent and powerful enough to ignore the commands of the government. President Jorge Serrano's party does not have majority support of the powerful commercial sector. Even the United States has found its ability to influence the army to be limited.
The best argument for delaying the return is that, while the armed conflict continues, there is little hope of reducing the power of the army. However, given the current stalemate in the negotiations, the relatively weak bargaining position of the URNG and the intransigence of the armed forces, it is unlikely that a far-reaching peace agreement (which also reorganises the structure and composition of the armed forces) will be signed in the foreseeable future. A peacetime repatriation is therefore not a realistic possibility for those who wish to return now.
Under no circumstances could Guatemala be described as a country which is safe to return to. Between January 1 and March 6 of 1992, the UN documented 929 extrajudicial executions, 117 disappearances, 575 death threats, 357 attempted murders and 59 bombings of civilian communities.
The shocking inequalities of wealth and the concentration of power in the hands of a small elite which are at the root of the social unrest are even more pronounced today than 30 years ago and those in power are just as determined to defend
The international community must monitor and forcefully denounce any violation of the returnees' rights and in this way given them the opportunity to return from exile in relative safety and begin the arduous task of rebuilding their lives in Guatemala.