"I wish them the actuarial tables in Cuba". That was the parting wish that outgoing US secretary of state Madeleine Albright extended to the new administration of George W Bush, during a January 10 media conference in Washington.
Cuban President Fidel Castro's age, 74 years, has exceeded male Cubans' average life span by about five years. So Albright expresses her hope that Castro soon conforms to the actuarial probability — and dies soon.
Having done so much to demonise Cuba since its 1959 revolution, even sections of the capitalist media are starting to grudgingly acknowledge the country's record. A January 10 report by the Agence France-Presse, for example, notes that Castro has survived "not only assassination attempts inspired by Washington but also the abortive 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion and a four decade-old economic embargo".
But Bush is unlikely to give up efforts to destabilise the island nation and simply wait for Castro to die. US aggression of a diplomatic, economic or even military nature remains part of Cuba's everyday life, according to Abelardo Cueto Sosa of the Cuban Communist Party's international department.
Speaking to Green Left Weekly in Sydney on the same day as Albright was in Washington, Cueto said that Bush gives out every sign of preparing to step up attacks on Cuba.
"The Democrats tried to strangle the Cuban Revolution slowly. The Republicans want to finish our revolution off as soon as they can", Cueto argued.
Cueto said that, after leading US troops in the 1991 Gulf War, Bush's new secretary of state Colin Powell "made clear that after they have dealt with the 'demon' Saddam Hussein, they will move next to get rid of the remaining two — Kim Il-Sung of North Korea, who has since died, and Castro. We have little doubt that Powell will use his present position to try to crush us."
A further motivation for belligerence from Bush was added more recently, Cueto added, during the saga surrounding six-year-old Elian Gonzalez, held by his Miami relatives against his Cuban father's will after his mother died trying to cross the Florida Straits.
"While both Al Gore and Bush assumed highly counter-revolutionary positions in backing the kidnapping of Elian and attacking Cuba, after the rescue of the boy Bush tried to seize on this action of the Democrats to attack Gore. We understand that Bush has done a deal with the Cuban-American mafia in Florida: promising them elevated attacks on Cuba after becoming president, in exchange for them punishing Gore at the presidential ballot."
Cueto expects President Bush will return the favour soon.
"We have little doubt that he will tighten the blockade and work aggressively to increase the isolation of Cuba internationally, even to the point of launching military provocation if the situation warrants", said Cueto.
For tiny Cuba, with a population of only 11 million, a military confrontation with the mightiest of the imperialist powers seems a daunting prospect.
But Cueto, who was a Cuban volunteer in Angola helping that country fight off invasion by apartheid South Africa, said "We are conscious and confident at the same time. We are too near to the Americans for them to dare dropping a nuclear bomb on us. If they do, they'll suffer as well."
"But every man and woman in Cuba knows what to do in such a war situation. They'll all have a weapon, know how to use it and have the capacity to fight", he said.
"Even if the US managed to control parts of Cuba, they can only be totally safe if they killed the entire population of Cuba because even if there's only one Cuban left alive, they'll have no guarantee that their water wouldn't be poisoned, that their soldiers won't be exposed to mines and other booby traps ... They won't find in Cuba the classical division between the front line and the peaceful zone because the entire Cuba will be the front line", said Cueto adamantly.
"We do not want war. But the best way to avoid the possibility of a war is to be strong enough — and we are strong enough ... We want to live in peace with the American people but we're prepared to fight the American establishment."
Even if it doesn't go to such lengths, Cueto believes the Bush regime will be much rougher on Cuba than the Democrats were.
The US's economic blockade is one thing which will surely worsen, Cueto believes. Despite claims in the US that recent measures enacted by Congress have eased the embargo, Cueto argues that onerous stipulations in the new law mean the opposite.
"They will try to reinforce the blockade and isolate us diplomatically", Cueto stated. "But we have relations with more than 115 countries and have embassies in more than 100 countries. They have no way to totally isolate us, though they no doubt will continue to try."
"Such forums as the UN system, the Non-Aligned Movement and the Group of 77 will all be a battleground between the position of Cuba and that of the US and its allies", Cueto added.
Cueto expects one of the first rounds to be the April session of the United Nations Human Rights Commission in Geneva. "They have started signalling to different governments to attack Cuba on human rights", he said.
Cueto is angered by the US's claims about Cuba. "They have persistently manipulated and demonised our image in the media — as if we are a barbaric country, that our people have no food to eat and die in misery, that artists have no freedom for creativity. We'll reject such demonisation and fight a determined battle inside the Human Rights Commission."
He also accuses the US of hypocrisy on human rights. "The US's own record isn't something to be proud of. Look at the plight of their African-American community and the Indian community, their treatment of illegal immigrants and their infamous police brutality, just to name a few."
BY EVA CHENG