Indonesian regime suffers further setbacks
By Max Lane
The Habibie-Wiranto regime suffered another major setback on October 22 when the parliament finally passed a law on "public expression of opinion". The final version of the law undid practically all of the restrictions that the regime's draft contained.
Both the minister of defence and commander in chief of the armed forces, General Wiranto, and the minister of justice, Muladi, had campaigned strongly for the original hardline version.
In the final version, demonstrations are still banned directly in front of a number of so-called vital installations, such as the presidential palace, but they are now allowed to be held 100 metres away. A ban on evening demonstrations has been removed.
Most importantly, the requirement for any kind of permission has been dropped. Organisers of a rally are still supposed to inform police beforehand.
A proposed restriction on the number of participants in a demonstration has also been lifted. Previously the regime had been insisting on a maximum of 100 people. Organisers of any demonstration must, however, guarantee at least one marshal for every 100 people.
Most remarkably, the new law also provides that anybody obstructing a demonstration, including any member of the state apparatus, can be liable to one year's jail.
This defeat for the original bill reflects the massive politicisation of society. The parliamentarians have realised that there is no possibility at the moment of forcibly suppressing the wave of demonstrations and other public mobilisations.
Force and black operations
The regime is seeking ways to claw back all such losses. Every opportunity is seized to use force.
Even on the day the law was passed, five students were arrested at a demonstration outside the presidential palace. When a small group of activists went too close to the palace, a large number of Mobile Brigade troops swept in, forcing the whole demonstration away.
There is also an increase in "black" operations: violent demonstrations organised by groups that nobody has ever heard of and which target the student movement and human rights organisations.
In one demonstration, the participants came equipped with stones to the Jakarta Legal Aid Office and smashed several windows. The police stood by and watched without taking any preventive action.
There are also rumours, and some public allegations, that elements inside the government are responsible for other outbreaks of violence in different parts of the country.
There have been more than 90 killings of Muslim religious leaders in East Java. Most of those murdered have been affiliated to the Nahdatul Ulama (NU), a rural Muslim religious organisation.
Its chair is Abdurrahman Wahid, or Gus Dur, one of the most prominent political figures in the country. In the period before the killings, he and other NU officials strongly criticised statements by ultra-right Muslim groups which accused anti-Habibie student groups of being communist.
The NU youth organisation also organised a mass rally in solidarity with the mostly Christian community organisations that have been working to collect evidence on the organised mass rape of Indonesian Chinese women during the May riots.
Amazing accusations
In the last week, Wahid has made statements that the killings in East Java are linked to a political struggle inside the cabinet.
A few days later, General Wiranto, during a visit to East Java, agreed with Wahid. Neither Wahid nor Wiranto would name names, and Wiranto later withdrew his statement, saying he was only passing on the views of East Java religious leaders.
Commentators are speculating that Wahid is referring to the allies of the ultra-rightist Muslim groups in the cabinet, especially the minister for cooperatives, Adi Sasono.
Such events have provided the Jakarta rumour mill with even more fuel than usual. There are many rumours that Suharto has a comeback strategy: that he has brought huge amounts of money back into Indonesia both to fund black operations and to buy votes at the November-December session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).
There are even rumours that the strengthening of the rupiah in the last two weeks is a result of a sudden inflow of a massive amount of US dollars belonging to Suharto.
There are also reports that three weeks ago, Habibie tried to dismiss Wiranto. A candidate to replace Wiranto would be the commander of the army, General Soebagio, who is close to General Prabowo, Suharto's son-in-law who was dismissed from the army in August.
Defusing unrest
According to Mohammed Ma'ruf, editor of Pembebasan (Liberation), the magazine of the People's Democratic Party (PRD), the regime is also looking at other options. "The regime is preparing to move into alliances with other forces", he told Green Left Weekly.
"The most important thing for the regime is to end the political unrest. Its political machine is in disarray, and the use of big military repression without an operating political machine will backfire. It can't suppress the unrest, so it will seek a way to defuse it."
According to Ma'ruf, new proposed laws on elections, political parties and the composition of parliament have been liberalised as a concession to the larger conservative parties.
"Bringing some of these parties, like the Star and Crescent Party or Amien Rais' National Mandate Party or even Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI), into a coalition with Golkar in parliament or even into the cabinet will be the way they will try to buy popular acceptance.
"The new laws will hurt Golkar, but help the potential allies of Golkar. The key thing is that they will try to prevent the radical forces from participating effectively in the elections."
The Megawati PDI is positioning itself for such a possibility. Its massive conference in Bali was a humiliation for the army, which tried up until the last minute to stop it and which went out of its way to promote the congress of the puppet, officially recognised, PDI a few weeks before.
However, at the conference, Megawati took several decisions clearly aimed at signalling that the PDI would be "responsible" in government.
Megawati declared her full support for a free market economy.
PDI figures with close connections to the big business and banking sectors have increased their influence in the organisation, reducing the influence of rank-and-file leaders.
With great fanfare, Megawati swore in a number of retired army and marine generals and made sure that one, General Theo Syafei, obtained the position of a vice-chairperson of the party. Syafei was once in charge of East Timor operations.
Megawati has also taken a clear stance against any discussion of a federal system of government, an idea particularly unpopular with the army. Decisions like this help put the PDI into position as an acceptable ally of Golkar or the army in parliament.
Despite its probable large vote in the upcoming elections, it is unlikely that the PDI will get a majority. This is also why PDI figures are starting to promote direct popular election of the president. In a popular election, Megawati might get more votes than anyone else, but could be blocked by a hostile coalition in a parliamentary vote for president.