BY NORM DIXON
At every turn since the fall of Kabul and Kandahar, Washington has justified its prolonged bombing and steadily increased military presence in Afghanistan and surrounding countries with claims that the US military's sophisticated surveillance technologies have frequently had Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar and al Qaeda supremo Osama bin Laden in its sights and they were on the verge of being captured.
Despite the Taliban's clear military defeat — made total by the capture of the notorious Tora Bora caves in eastern Afghanistan in mid-December and the surrender of several hundred Taliban hold-outs in Helmand province — Washington continues to refuse to pronounce victory because Omar, 20 or so of his lieutenants, and bin Laden have not been caught or killed.
Before the fall of the Tora Bora caves, US government spokespeople insisted that bin Laden was holed up there and even claimed they had identified his voice in walkie-talkie transmissions from the area. But when the caves were captured, bin Laden had vanished.
Now, Washington is seeking to prolong its bombing and maintain its military presence in the region by claiming that it does not know where Omar and bin Laden are.
"A few days ago we believed he was in that area", said Rear Admiral John Stufflebeem, deputy director of operations for the US joint chiefs of staff on December 17. "Now we're not sure... Indicators were there. And now indicators are not there. So maybe he still is there, maybe he was killed or maybe he's left... We're pretty good at being able to describe where he's been. It's very difficult to see where he's at and certainly impossible to predict where he'll be."
Yet, for all Washington's bluster about capturing Omar and bin Laden "dead or alive" — and the awful toll its bombs have exacted in that quest — it is widely accepted that bin Laden, and probably Omar, slipped into Pakistan as early as November 26.
Bin Laden's escape was likely to have been facilitated by Washington's new-found "allies", the Pashtun tribal leaders in the south and east who only yesterday were the Taliban's collaborators. Elements of Pakistan's secret police agency, the ISI, are also suspected to have played a role.
In the aftermath of the fall of Tora Bora, "anti-Taliban" commanders have allowed hundreds, perhaps thousands, of al Qaeda fighters to escape to Pakistan. Senior Taliban leaders have also escaped to Pakistan or been allowed to return to their home villages. Rank and file Taliban fighters have simply joined their opponents en masse.
"We will get bin Laden whether it's today, tomorrow, a year from now [or] two years from now. The president made it clear that we will not rest until he is brought to justice or justice is brought to him", US Secretary of State Colin Powell declared on December 16.
That same day, during a visit to US troops in Uzbekistan, a soldier hopefully asked US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld, "When are we going home?". Rumsfeld replied: "There is no way to know how long it's going to take to find Omar and the senior al Qaeda leadership and see that they're punished. As far as our presence here, we're not leaving until we get the job done."
It is in Washington's interests for bin Laden to be transformed into a kind of "evil Elvis" whose whereabouts — and even existence — are a constant source of speculation.
As long as he remains "at large", the US military build-up in Afghanistan and central Asia — and the resulting US political and economic domination — can be more easily justified, especially to the American people (according to opinion polls, more than 60% of Americans say that victory will be defined by the capture of Omar and bin Laden).
Military action against any other country in the region and the world with which the US has a gripe can also be threatened on the excuse that Washington believes that bin Laden is being harboured there or has been "sighted". Washington claims that al Qaeda "sleeper cells" are present in as many as 60 countries.
Washington's goal is to convince the American people that they must be on a permanent war footing. In November, Rumsfeld stated that the US "war on terrorism" is "more like the Cold War than World War II... World War II ended with a signing ceremony on USS Missouri. The Cold War ended ... because of constant pressure over a sustained period of time". As the December 18 Washington Post reminded its readers: "The Cold War also lasted about 45 years."
Ronald Spector, professor of history and international relations at George Washington University, pointed out to the Washington Post that same day: "If they do capture or kill bin Laden ... people will think we've won the war on terrorism, we got the worst guy... That's what the Pentagon and the president don't want people to go around thinking."
From Green Left Weekly, January 16, 2002.
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