Federico Fuentes, Caracas
With a firm date, December 4, set for Bolivia's presidential elections, the left is discussing how to best approach the current political situation.
The elections were won through a popular uprising in May-June, which forced President Carlos Mesa to resign, and his constitutional successors to refuse the post. At the heart of Bolivia's political upheaval is the debate over who controls the country's vast gas reserves. Most Bolivians support nationalisation of the gas, and use of the revenue to improve the lot of the majority poor, but the oil elite in the country's south-east want to maintain the tremendous profits of the oil multinationals they are supported by.
Alongside nationalisation of the gas, the revolt also demanded a constituent assembly to redraw the constitution in the interests of the majority. At the same time, the wealthy elite, based in particular around the city of Santa Cruz, countered the rising militarism of the poor with a demand for an autonomy referendum for their regions, where the gas is located. Bolivia's parliament has decided to hold elections for a constituent assembly and hold several autonomy referendums in July 2006.
The major left force in parliament, is the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) led by Evo Morales. MAS decided to vote for the dissolution of parliament and full elections on December 4, despite the refusal of parliament to hold simultaneous elections for a constituent assembly. Some activists, including Oscar Olivera from the Coordination for the Defence of Gas, were concerned by the MAS decision to support the bill. The highly influential FEJUVE, the federation of neighbourhood committees from El Alto, also noted that nationalisation still had not been resolved by parliament.
Morales responded to criticisms on the MAS website (<http://www.masbolivia.org>) on July 7. Conceding that he knew that there were still problems, he said: "but I want to say to my friends the indigenous peoples, that there isn't the two-thirds [majority necessary] for the Constituent Assembly, and not because of this, for the want of imposing the constituent assembly, are we going to harm the country."
These elections will throw up challenges for the right and left. On one hand, all the traditional neoliberal parties have been thoroughly discredited — in the December municipal elections, they struggled to get 10% of the vote combined. Since then, the traditional parties have attempted to avoid open endorsement of neoliberalism.
The two main right-wing candidates are Jorge Quiroga and Samuel Dora Medina, neither of whom are currently candidates of traditional parties.
Quiroga, a former leader of the National Democratic Action (ADN), was Bolivia's president during 2001-02. Previously an IBM executive, he left Bolivia for the US following a 2003 uprising that overthrew then president Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada. On September 7 last year Quiroga resigned from ADN, but did not renounce that party's policies. His resignation was widely regarded as a manoeuvre to help his vote in the municipal elections, given the discredited state of the major parties. His allies polled decently in those elections.
Quiroga, running with the newly formed Alliance 21st Century, is backed by the US embassy and de Lozada. While he claims to be neither left nor right, a key plank in his election platform is cracking down on "law and order", which means cracking down on the mobilised social movements.
A millionaire business leader, Medina is running with the "centrist" National Unity (UN). He has attempted to pitch a little more moderate than Quiroga, who he describes as a representative of the transnationals. However, Medina launched his campaign by claiming the election was a chance to "blockade the blockaders" at the ballot box, a clear attack on Morales and MAS, which supported the May-June uprising. Given MAS's popularity, the right may have to unite behind one candidate.
The left also faces the challenge of uniting. The social movement candidates will have to battle Washington's interference, the efforts of big business, corporate media attacks and a corrupt state electoral apparatus if they are going to muster enough votes to defeat the right.
However, it does bode well for the left. These elections come on the back of a five year upsurge in class struggle, and a highly mobilised population. In the 2002 presidential elections, Morales lost to de Lozada by less than 2%, and he has been preselected as the MAS candidate again.
One of the criticisms directed at Morales is that he has not consistently supported full nationalisation of the gas industry. On July 17, however, the MAS National Assembly voted in favour of "nationalisation and or 100% recuperation of the property of gas and its industrialisation".
MAS also decided to call for a broad anti-neoliberal electoral front of social movements, high profile individuals and political parties. On July 13, Bolpress reported that MAS had already made two concrete alliances — with the federation of cooperative miners of La Paz and the mayor of La Paz.
On July 10, Bolpress reported that El Alto councillor Roberto de la Cruz, a well-respected former leader of the Workers Regional Centre (COR) of El Alto, and his group M-17, would initiate a new party called Social Movement for Liberation (M-Sol). De la Cruz has invited the Bolivian Workers Central (COB) to join the party, which aims to build a "third alternative", demanding gas nationalisation and a guarantee of a constituent assembly.
Meanwhile, COR delegates are raising the idea of a political instrument to link all those tied to the social movements to enable them to unite enough to defeat the right. They argue this could organise discussions between Morales, COB leader Jaime Solares, de la Cruz, Olivera and Aymara leader Felipe Quispe.
FEJUVE leader Abel Mamani has also quoted refusing to rule out forming a political party to help counter the key weakness of El Alto's various militant movements: their lack of a national, or even regional, reach.
From Green Left Weekly, August 10, 2005.
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