By Frank Noakes
LONDON — " At this stage in the economic cycle, there is bound to be a mixture of good and bad news, and unemployment is likely to be one of the last economic indicators to turn around", said Tory employment secretary Gillian Shephard, on announcing that a further 96,000 indicators became bad news last month.
There are now 2.75 million people unemployed in Britain, or 10.5% of the population, the August 13 announcement blandly declares. Everybody knows that the government is playing fast and loose with the figures: it has changed the way they are compiled 30 times since 1979, always to produce a lower figure. The real jobless level is closer to 4 million.
The statistics, outside of their human context, are a mere ministerial indicator. They don't tell the story of 19-year-old Nick Caple. Nick was laid off from his job, and so ashamed was he of being unemployed that he went into a field and simply lay down to die. His decomposing body was found two weeks later. Youth suicide is dramatically escalating.
Every job vacancy is sought after by at least 25 people, yet the government is considering cutting out unemployment benefits after six months. Ex-minister Francis Maude, a proponent of the idea, says he believes it to be a "Christian" approach.
Meanwhile, Shephard announced a £2.4 million advertising campaign to ask employers to advertise their job vacancies at the Jobcentre. But jobs are vanishing at an average rate of 25,000 per month — what vacancies should they advertise?
The Federation of Small Business says the recession has progressed to a slump, whatever that means, and it is likely to remain in this parlous state for at least the next two years, possibly longer. Based on a survey of its members, the federation suggests that the economy is heading for a "catastrophe" in which unemployment could double over the next two years.
There is a sombre mood, a sad resignation at yet more bad news. Despite a call by Labour's shadow employment secretary, Frank Dobson, for full employment to be put back at the top of the agenda, the Labour Party broadly accepts the Tory economic program.
The Trade Union Congress is ineffective, even incapable under the current leadership, of any organised and active response. Its spokesperson, general secretary Norman Willis, caught in a revolving metaphor, responds: "Anyone who thinks this country is turning the corner must be round the bend".
Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont stated last year that unemployment was a "price worth paying" to get inflation down, and . It was "cheered" by low "wage inflation" figures, released concurrently, that show wages declining by a further 1.7% in July. Statistics indicating that the level of strikes, for the financial year ending July 30, were the lowest since 1920 no doubt caused a few champagne corks to ricochet around the boardrooms.