By Ndungi Wa Mungai
Kenya could be the next country to explode into civil war. This is the conclusion of a detailed study by the US-based Africa Watch on the current state-sponsored inter-ethnic violence.
At the time of the report in November, more than 1500 people had been killed and 300,000 displaced. Since then the violence has spread from the Rift Valley Province and the western districts to the Coast Province in the east.
The damage done by the violence is greater than the figures reveal. Hatred and suspicion have been created between the ethnic communities and many people have lost faith in the ability or even the will of the government to protect them.
A visit to the affected areas revealed that farms had been deserted, homes and schools burned down. A member of the British Refugee Council, Lord David Ennals, who visited the area, described it as a mini-Bosnia, with the same principle of "ethnic cleansing". The displaced people are dependent on relief aid provided by the National Christian Council of Kenya (NCCK), the Catholic Church, Kenya Red Cross and other smaller non-government organisations.
The report states: "Although the violence is portrayed as purely ethnic or 'tribal' it is clearly basically political. The Moi government and his Kalenjin community have stood to benefit economically and politically (in the short run) from the violence."
Other reports by the NCCK and a parliamentary committee (Kiliku report) have also implicated the government. The government has simply dismissed them.
The violence broke out on October 29, 1991, as the government was reeling from the pressure to adopt a multiparty system by aid donors and the Kenyan people themselves. The violence continued even after the multiparty elections held in December 1992. In the Rift Valley, the Kalenjis and their Maasai allies have been terrorising the Kikuyus, Luos, Luhyas and other non-Kalenjis.
The study concluded that "the conflict has been deliberately and instigated by President Moi and his inner circle and has undermined attempts to create an atmosphere conducive to political pluralism in a multi-party Kenya".
Kenya gained independence in 1963 from the British, and Jomo Kenyatta (a Kikuyu) became the first president. He was succeeded at his death by Vice-President Daniel Arap Moi (a Kalenjin) in 1978. Over the years the different communities had developed a national identity, buying farms, working and intermarrying across the ethnic lines. No-one could have foreseen the current level of inter-ethnic animosity.
'"The governments response to the violence has been characterised by inaction towards attackers and outright hostility toward others who seek to help the victims", the report found.
The motives for the violence are "to prove the government's assertion that multiparty politics would lead to tribal chaos", to punish ethnic groups seen to support political opposition, to terrorise non-Kalenjis to leave the Rift Valley province and to support calls by Kalenjin and Maasai politicians for the introduction of manjimboism — a federal system based on ethnicity.
To restrict reporting on the atrocities, the government has declared the affected ares "security operations zones". This restricts access by journalists, relief workers, human rights monitors and opposition politicians.
Africa Watch calls upon the government to end the violence and resettle the displaced people, stop harassing the humanitarian and relief workers and allow free movement in the "security operation zones".
But the government has shown no willingness to stop the violence. On the contrary, the media report that security people have killed people while dispersing them in Maela.
Because farmers could not work their farms, the country is facing a serious famine; the weather alone does not explain the food shortage. A community of bitter, desperate and dispossessed people has been created. The seeds of a civil war have been sown.