Opinion polls in both the Fairfax and Murdoch dailies on May 18-19 show voter support for PM Kevin Rudd has fallen. Rudd, who scored a 74% approval rating in the Fairfax Nielsen poll on March 30, dropped 10 points in the May 18 poll, down to 64%.
At the same time, support for the Labor Party fell three points from 47% to 44%. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor lost 5% to the Coalition leaving it with 53% of the overall vote.
The May 19 Newspoll registered Rudd's approval at 58%, down from a high of 68% in early April. It measured Labor's two-party preferred vote at 56%, down two points from early April.
Add these poll figures to Labor's loss of the Western Australian state seat of Fremantle to the Greens in the May 16 by-election. The ALP had held the seat for 85 years.
Whatever way you spin it, Rudd's Labor is losing some of its sheen with voters.
Sydney Morning Herald political editor Peter Hartcher did his best on May 18 to deprive the poll results of any broader political meaning. His only explanation for the fall in Rudd Labor's support was to quote Nielsen pollster John Stirton, who said it "may be a consequence of concern about the size of the deficit", because that's what the Coalition has been focusing on.
The May 18 SMH editorial appealed for voters to continue to support the Labor government. It described the Rudd government as "certainly not exciting, but … at least still presentable and, most importantly, competent".
It noted that Rudd's falling popularity has not benefited Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull, who "lifted his approval not at all".
Pro-business policies
The reasons behind Rudd's fall from grace are not hard to find — if you look in the right places.
They are the same reasons that a fall in popularity for Rudd is not translating into a rise for Turnbull. More people are deciding that neither of the big parties are prepared to give
them what they desperately need.
Labor was elected to office in November 2007 with huge expectations. The union-led campaign against then Coalition PM John Howard's Work Choices raised working people's hopes for progressive change.
Rudd gave a nod-and-a-wink to big business that he would keep much of the Coalition's anti-worker industrial relations system. At the same time, Rudd and his deputy Julia Gillard sold workers the message that a Labor government would "tear up" Work Choices.
Labor's Forward with Fairness industrial relations policy was adopted at the party's April 2007 national conference. It clearly spelled out Labor would keep massive restrictions on unions' right to defend their members.
This included keeping Work Choices' huge fines for illegal action, a requirement for secret ballots before strikes, restrictions on union's right of entry to work sites and the powers of the draconian Australian Building and Construction Commission.
Yet that's not the message the Labor machine sold to the electorate. Many workers expected their rights at work to be restored — at least to the level that existed before Howard's election in 1996.
They have been sadly disappointed.
Rudd also promised action on climate change, breaking with Howard's policy of climate change denial. He ratified the (largely symbolic) Kyoto Protocol soon after being elected.
Labor's action to address climate change — mainly with its dreadful Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme — has, however, satisfied no-one except big business.
The Australian Industry Group and the Business Council of Australia praised Rudd for his May 4 amendments to the proposed scheme, which will now only begin in July 2011. The biggest polluters will also be given an extra $2.2 billion in free permits.
Voters in Fremantle gave Labor pause to think about their appalling climate change policy in the May 16 by-election. Labor candidate Peter Tagliaferri lost the seat decisively to the Greens' Adele Carles.
On May 17, federal Greens leader Bob Brown said: "The message to Kevin Rudd is clear: green up the weak, polluter-friendly climate change bill now before federal parliament or suffer the consequences at next year's election."
Broken promises
The disappointment with Rudd Labor has mounted as the real ALP program has been revealed.
Rudd delivered a national apology to the Aboriginal Stolen Generations in February 2008. While saying sorry for the hurt caused by the separation of Aboriginal children from their parents, however, Rudd refused any compensation.
Labor has continued the Howard government's so-called Northern Territory Emergency Response, a racist intervention into Aboriginal communities. It is even considering extending it to other areas.
A review commissioned by the government recommended in October that the "income management" scheme be made voluntary. The policy quarantines half of the income of targeted NT Aborigines who receive welfare payments. Those affected can only spend this money with a card that can be used only at government-approved shops and supermarkets.
Despite the recommendation the government has kept the humiliating system unchanged.
The Labor government also appeared to honour a commitment to end Australia's involvement in the Iraq war. In June it withdrew 550 combat soldiers from Iraq. However, according to the Australian defence department website, a further 147 Australian soldiers still remain as part of the occupying forces.
Australia plays an active role in supporting the interests of US imperialism in Afghanistan. The defence department says there are 1090 Australian combat personnel in the country. A further 800 support troops are stationed outside the borders of Afghanistan.
Rudd also agreed in April to send a further 450 soldiers to the brutal war in Afghanistan.
Against neoliberalism?
In the February issue of the Monthly magazine, Rudd took a public swipe at neoliberalism. He blamed excessive deregulation for the global economic crisis and promised a fairer, "social capitalist", government.
And while the government was giving "bonus" money to pensioners, parents and finally workers, many may have believed him.
However, the Rudd government's second budget has helped dispel illusions in the government's "social" character.
Working people will have to slave until 67 before the pension — either public or superannuation. Unemployed and single parents got nothing in the budget. Pensioners got a small welfare rise, but this was paid for by a steep rise in the rate at which pensions drop when non-pension income rises.
Poverty for single parents, the aged, unemployed and the disabled is a consequence of Rudd's budget.
In less than 18 months in office, Labor has disappointed the expectations of workers, Indigenous people, environmentalists and many others. Little wonder, then, that working people are losing faith. And why would people turn to support the Liberals, when they offer more of the same?
The challenge remains for the Greens and socialists is to build on this discontent to create a viable alternative that working people can turn to.