By Norm Dixon
Encouraged by statements from US President Bill Clinton during his Africa tour in March, Nigerian dictator General Sani Abacha has moved rapidly to scuttle the country's already discredited "transition to democracy". On April 21, the Nigerian government announced that Abacha would be the sole presidential candidate and that the presidential election, scheduled for August, would now be a referendum in which voters can answer only "yes" or "no" to Abacha's rule.
Speaking in Cape Town on March 27, Clinton signalled Washington's real attitude towards the brutal dictator when he remarked, "If Abacha stands for election, we hope he will stand as a civilian. There are many military leaders who have taken over chaotic situations in African countries, but who have moved toward democracy. That can happen in Nigeria."
Clinton's candid statement contradicted the administration's usual public stance on Nigeria. Two weeks earlier, the US assistant secretary of state for African affairs, Susan Rice, said, "Electoral victory by any military candidate in the forthcoming election in Nigeria would be unacceptable. Nigerians need and deserve a real transition to democracy and civilian rule, not another military regime dressed up in civilian clothes."
Caught flat-footed by their chief's honesty, administration officials unconvincingly tried to reconcile the two positions. However, Clinton's statement brought Washington's public position into line with its actual policy.
In November 1993, Abacha seized power and annulled that year's presidential elections, won by conservative civilian politician Moshood Abiola. Abiola was charged with treason in 1994 after he declared himself the rightful president. He remains in jail.
On October 1, 1995, Abacha announced a three-year timetable for a "transition to democracy". The plan was described as a sham by the Nigerian democracy movement.
At every step, the west — most importantly the US and Britain — has been prepared to give the dictatorship the benefit of the doubt. While making criticisms and imposing token sanctions — due to pressure from domestic public opinion, especially following the execution of Ogoni leader Ken Saro-Wiwa in 1995 — Washington and London have steadfastly refused to introduce the one measure that would hurt the Nigerian military, oil sanctions.
The Nigerian democracy movement, the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People, Nigerian writer Wole Soyinka, Greenpeace, US churches, the Sierra Club environment group, the anti-apartheid group TransAfrica, the US National Association for the Advancement of Colored People and the US Conference of Mayors have all demanded oil sanctions against Nigeria.
British, European and US companies have huge investments in Nigeria. The giant Anglo-Dutch oil company Shell produces 50% of Nigeria's oil. US companies Amoco, Mobil, Chevron and Texaco are responsible for producing most of the remainder.
The US is the biggest importer of Nigerian oil — between 40% and 50% of oil exports. Oil accounts for 90% of Nigeria's exports and 80% of the military regime's revenue, most disappearing into the generals' pockets.
In a speech in January, a US undersecretary of state and political affairs and former ambassador to Nigeria, Thomas Pickering, opposed intensifying the present "selective" sanctions, which he admitted had not succeeded. A US boycott of oil purchases would close the door on dialogue with the dictator, he said, and Nigeria is "too important for us to walk away from".
The Reverend Jesse Jackson, Clinton's "special envoy for democracy and human rights in Africa", warned on April 5 that a confrontation with Abacha would have "awesome" consequences for Nigeria and the region. Instead, Jackson said, Washington has chosen to follow the same sort of "aggressive, assertive engagement" in Nigeria as it uses in China.
On March 11, reported the US Nation, "the brutal military dictatorship found itself with a new Washington lobbyist: the State Department". The deputy assistant secretary of state, William Ramsay, was dispatched to try to dissuade the Maryland state parliament from adopting laws that would ban contracts with the Nigerian regime or with companies that do business there. Ramsay argued that state sanctions would be in breach of the free trade provisions of GATT.
If the bill passes, Maryland will become the first US state to impose sanctions against Nigeria. Similar measures against South Africa in the late 1980s played an important role in bringing down apartheid.
"Many more communities are considering sanctions against countries they consider poor international neighbours, including Burma, Nigeria and Indonesia", reported the March 27 Washington Post. "This activism has alarmed State Department officials, who contend that the actions by local leaders harm US foreign policy objectives."
The National Trade Council, which represents 550 of the biggest companies in the US, described local sanctions as "a threat to the national interest".
The Abacha regime welcomed Clinton's public softening of the US stance. Foreign minister Tom Ikimi met with US ambassador to William Twaddell to express his government's joy.
Soon after getting the nod from Clinton, the military regime began to fast-track the bogus "transition". Stage-managed pro-Abacha rallies were organised by government-funded outfits with names like "Youth Earnestly Ask for Abacha" calling for the general to stand in the August elections. Anti-Abacha rallies were crushed with deadly force.
On April 15, as 20,000 Abacha supporters gathered in the south-west city of Ibadan — many bribed with free food and even colour TVS — riot police opened fire on 3000 protesters, killing three. More than 100 were arrested.
When opponents attempted to march in Lagos, the march was banned and the notorious "kill and go" riot police were mobilised. "We cannot guarantee the life of anybody who takes part in the Lagos rally", warned the Lagos state police chief. "We will deal with them crudely."
At least 7000 political activists have been jailed during Abacha's reign. Anybody the dictator considers a threat to his position has been locked up or executed.
On April 20, the last of Nigeria's five government-appointed political parties nominated Abacha as its presidential candidate. Last October, the dictatorship legalised the five pro-regime parties and banned 18 others. At the end of March, the junta handed each legal party US$250,000 and "suggested" they nominate Abacha.
On April 21, the government announced that the August 1 presidential elections had been cancelled, replaced by a referendum on Abacha's rule. Nigeria's banned opposition parties and exiled democracy movement have announced that they will call on Nigerians to boycott the August 1 plebiscite.
A call for a boycott of national assembly elections on April 25 was a disaster for the regime. Most of the country's 56 million registered voters stayed away, and many booths struggled to tally votes over double figures. It is likely that fewer people voted than the 19,000 police and soldiers assigned the "guard" the booths.
"As long as General Abacha bestrides our nation, whatever the cloth with which his apparel is woven, our country will know no peace, progress or reconciliation", warned Wole Soyinka on April 24, speaking on behalf of a coalition of democracy groups.
"The situation in Nigeria calls for more than pious statements. It requires decisive and measurable actions. The United Nations, the European Union, the Commonwealth and the Organisation of African Unity must not only state in clear and unambiguous terms the unacceptability of any transformation of General Abacha, they must agree to a multilateral sanctions package against the obdurate junta, including the oil embargo."