Max Lane
Former Suharto-era general Bambang Susilo Yudhoyono and former Golkar official Yusuf Kalla have been elected as president and vice-president in the second round of Indonesia's first direct presidential election. Yudhoyono won 61% of the vote against outgoing President Megawati Sukarnoputri's 39%. Despite this seeming "landslide", Yudhoyono is likely to experience a very short honeymoon as a prelude to a looming popular upsurge during the course of 2005.
Yudhoyono's win was politically ephemeral. The popular interest in the "campaign" — often described as a beauty contest — was weak. Rallies, marches and public meetings were rare, small and often stage-managed. Vox pops in the media with people who voted for Yudhoyono reflected weak hope, rather than conviction, that he would bring economic improvement.
Moreover, approximately 33 million registered voters chose not to vote at all and several million more did not bother to register. This is a very large number given that it was the first direct presidential election, won after a long struggle against the Suharto dictatorship. Activists report absenteeism was concentrated in the cities, reflecting the contempt for the political elite.
The listless response to the election campaign reflects its disconnection from rising social and political discontent. On any given day, usually in more than one city, there are strikes, occupations and demonstrations of one kind or another — by workers, peasants and villagers, fisher-people, homeworkers, women's groups, doctors — almost every sector. Every day in the papers there are reports on debates over legislation on the role of the army, domestic violence, privatisation of water, various business scandals, environmental issues, the death of political prisoners in jail or fighting in Aceh. Not to mention the desperate discussions of the state of the economy — the falling foreign and domestic investment, the looming 2005 due date for debt repayment and massive unemployment.
Neoliberalism — particularly the removal of industrial and agricultural protection — is de-industrialising the country and degrading agricultural productive forces. The fall in living standards and security of tens of thousands of rural people has resulted in protest actions by farmers, strikes and protests by workers and big mobilisations of villagers travelling to Jakarta to protest.
Yet neither presidential candidate initiated any serious discussion. There was plenty of rhetoric about solving problems, but no discussion of how. There were two political worlds reported in the media: this surreal all-in-the abstract presidential campaign and the reality of debate, fear and political activity over the unravelling of the economy and society.
Even before Yudhoyono has been sworn in, reality is intruding. A parliamentary commission, made of up of election losers, has called for a reduction in the subsidies on fuel prices, a touchstone issue for Indonesians, because fuel price increases spark kerosene price increases. Yudhoyono has been forced to confirm he will continue with previous policy, to cut the subsidies.
Kalla has already announced that the new government will keep as many ministers as it can from the old cabinet because "everything has been going well". Reports from the Yudhoyono camp indicate that he is finding it hard to juggle the cabinet. Not enough change will expose him immediately to his supporters, but his other main options — the middle-level army officers who supported him, or members of the right-wing Islamic Star and Crescent Party, won't help either. Instead of the "clean professionals" he promised to appoint, he will end up with a combination of old Megawati ministers and new conservative party and military appointees, perhaps co-opting one or two civil-liberties lawyers for image.
The continued political role of military personnel — active and retired — is another problem for Yudyuhono. The army has not beaten back the hostility it engendered during the final years of the Suharto regime, and every attempt to reassert itself has met with resistance. During the election campaign, parliament debated abolishing the military's direct representation in cabinet and establishing civilian supremacy over it. The National Awakening Party even suggested the dismantling of some of the military's territorial command structure. Yudhoyono has been forced to stave off structural change by promising to ensure the military keeps out of politics.
In November, fuel prices will rise. In December, Malaysia is planning to deport to Indonesia 700,000 migrant workers. In January, new World Trade Organisation rules will come into effect, ending quotas on many imports. Unions and Indonesian capitalists agree that 50% of all industrial estates will have to close during the first half of the year, because of Chinese imports.
The indications that a popular upsurge are brewing are there: the low participation rate in historic elections, mounting economic pressure, a president unable to even really pretend to be different, looming explosions in unemployment and price rises and, most importantly, endemic social protest.
From Green Left Weekly, September 29, 2004.
Visit the Green Left Weekly home page.