By Jack Colhoun
WASHINGTON — Here for a meeting with World Bank officials, former Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega delivered an urgent warning: Nicaragua is on the verge of "an armed social explosion".
"There are thousands of armed men and women in Nicaragua. Some are demobilised Sandinistas [soldiers]", Ortega told a meeting organised by Witness for Peace and the Nicaragua Network. "Some are former Contras. But they are coming together and forming groups."
He continued, "They no longer see any political differences. They find social and economic common denominators. They don't have jobs. They are hungry. If they have land, they don't have deeds to it. Or they are threatened by people who want to take their land away. Or they can't get credit from the bank. It is really a very dangerous situation." Sixty per cent of Nicaragua's work force, he pointed out, is unemployed or underemployed.
Referring to the takeover of the town of Ocotal in March by former Sandinista troops and Contras, Ortega told the gathering that the recompañeros (demobilised Sandinistas) and recontras (demobilised Contras) who took over in Ocotal don't want to overthrow President Violeta Chamorro's government but are militant in their demand that the government address their needs for jobs and land. He pointed out that conditions similar to those in Ocotal exist elsewhere in Nicaragua.
"It was necessary to avoid an armed confrontation between the army and the compañeros who took over the town", he stated. "What would have happened if they began to fight? That would have been a fight between Sandinistas ... Such a confrontation could give rise to any kind of interventionist action ... An armed social explosion would be chaotic. The government would be wiped out. The Sandinista Front would be wiped out."
The Sandinista leader stressed there was still time to salvage the situation. He urged the Chamorro government to create jobs and stimulate economic production, especially agricultural production. He conceded, however, that the government has few resources with which to deal with the growing crisis.
"We want the international community to see the ultimate responsibility that it has", Ortega said, noting that he travelled here with Nicaraguan government officials to meet with
the World Bank. If the international community doesn't provide emergency support to Nicaragua, he emphasised, it is likely that the Chamorro government will fall.
Ortega said the Sandinistas and the Chamorro government agreed that an economic adjustment program was needed to restrain inflation and stabilise the currency. But he called the government's economic plan "a shock adjustment program", the success of which has come at the expense of the impoverished Nicaraguan majority.
"We haven't been able to completely resist this adjustment because that would have meant the collapse of the government", he stated. "Support for the Sandinistas is still so great we are somewhat hostage to our own strength. If we really applied all our strength against the government, the government would sink."
Sandinista plan
Ortega described the Sandinista Front's economic plan as more gradual than the government's and designed to ease the suffering of Nicaraguan peasants and workers. He emphasised that the Sandinistas continue to negotiate with the government over the adjustment program, adding that they still hope that "greater points of agreement" can be found.
The Sandinistas are urging the government to further democratise the economy by giving formerly state-owned property to peasants and workers.
"We have a good position in the struggle", he emphasised. "The army is a revolutionary army. The quality of the army has not changed, even though it has been reduced in numbers. The same goes for the police. The truth is when the people go out on the streets to struggle and protest, they go out with a certainty that the army and the police are not going to shoot at them." He compared Nicaragua today with other Latin American countries where the army and police are harshly repressive.
Ortega pointed out that the situation in Nicaragua calls for a rethinking of the roles of political parties in Latin America. He noted that it is not the Sandinistas who want to bring down the Chamorro government, but the far-right parties of UNO, the coalition that backed Chamorro during the 1990 presidential election.
The UNO parties believe Chamorro is too dependent on the Sandinistas and favour a more extreme economic adjustment program.
"We are a revolutionary force. We can't just say we're going
to be an opposition party to whatever party is in office", he asserted. "[But] we do not propose to return to office by overthrowing the government ... We are challenged to find a truly humane and democratic socialist alternative."