BY NORM DIXON
Iraq's President Saddam Hussein is the “only leader in the world
to have used chemical weapons against his own people” — this has become
a mantra repeated by US President George Bush, British PM Tony Blair, Bush's
political subordinates and string-pullers and the compliant capitalist
mass media as they cultivate public acceptance for Washington's coming
war on Iraq.
Yet, even as the Hussein regime's atrocities in the 1980s are loudly
being denounced to justify war, US officials are quietly seeking to find
a replacement for Hussein from among former high-ranking Iraqi military
dissidents who have themselves ordered the use of chemical weapons “against
their own people”.
Until recently, focus of the Central Intelligence Agency and the US
state department was on engineering “regime change” that originates within,
and is based upon, Iraq's powerful military machine, which is dominated
by the country's minority Sunni Muslim elite. This scenario would see Hussein
ousted by, or replaced with, a pro-Western military dictator who retains
the support of the majority of the Iraqi army command.
The CIA and the state department have always argued that the only other
viable strategy to overthrow Hussein — funding and arming the pro-imperialist
Kurdish nationalist forces that control northern Iraq, and the pro-Iranian
Shiite forces in southern Iraq — risks encouraging the political break-up
of Iraq. This is a concern shared by the governments in neighbouring Turkey
and Saudi Arabia (which also meant that there would little cooperation
from these countries for such an enterprise).
The CIA and the state department fear that an unintended consequence
could be the creation of a new “rogue states” which might undermine US
interests in the region: an independent Kurdish state could reinspire the
oppressed Kurdish populations of Turkey, Syria and Iran to fight for the
independence or — even more worrying for Washington, Israel and its pro-US
Arab regime — a central government in Iraq could take power that is more
representative of the 65% of the population who are Shiite Muslims, and
which might seek cooperation with Iran.
The CIA and the state department have also all but dismissed the corrupt
and discredited Iraqi National Congress (INC) as being incapable of leading
or maintaining control of a viable alternative regime to that of Saddam
Hussein. Unlike the Kurdish and Shiite organisations, the INC has no demonstrated
support or social base within Iraq.
On the other side of the Bush administration's factional divide, the
Pentagon is much less concerned about the “dangers” that may arise from
arming, funding or directly launching a war to install a regime in which
Hussein's Kurdish and Shiite opponents play a major role. The Department
of Defense (DoD) also argues that the CIA's and the state department's
hopes that a section of the military will launch a coup is misplaced. All
such attempts have been crushed by Hussein.
The faction that dominates the DoD has championed the INC for many years.
So does the Republican right in Congress. The DoD faction has long promoted
a scheme that would involve thousands of US troops entering northern Iraq
at the “invitation” of a government-in-exile composed of the INC and Kurdish
and Shiite parties. Using northern Iraq as a base, opposition armed forces
backed by massive US air strikes would overthrow Hussein's regime. In this
scenario, a military coup might also play a role.
Consensus
However, the Bush administration factions seem to have put aside their
pet strategies for “regime change” in Iraq, in favour of a “compromise”
battle plan: the outright invasion of Iraq by US and British troops in
early 2003.
(Incidentally, this illustrates just how inappropriate the mainstream
media's designation of the Pentagon faction as being “hawks” is. This implies
that the state department faction are “doves”. Both factions want war,
they just disagree about the best way to win it.)
According to a report in the April 28 New York Times, clearly
based on “off-the-record” briefings by “senior administration, Pentagon
and military officials”: “The Bush administration ... is concentrating
on a major air campaign and ground invasion, with initial estimates contemplating
the use of 70,000 to 250,000 troops... Consensus has emerged that there
is little chance for a military coup to unseat Mr Hussein from within ...
“Similarly, officials say they do not believe that even an expanded
version of the strategy used to oust the Taliban from Afghanistan would
work. In that model, precision air strikes combined with indigenous armed
opposition under the leadership of American Special Operations Forces and
CIA officers did the job.
“The parallel strategy in Iraq would involve the Kurds in the north
and the Shiites in the south. But Mr Hussein's military, while only one-third
its strength from before the Gulf War, is strong enough to defeat any confrontation
by proxy, officials said.”
With this plan, the argument over what is more likely to succeed — a
military coup or a Kurdish-Shiite insurgency — simply becomes redundant.
US military power will be the decisive factor in removing Hussein.
The “danger” of creating militarily confident Kurdish and Shiite statelets
would be minimised, easing the concerns of the state department and Washington's
regional allies.
The US would be able to impose a “coalition” government that includes
the INC or the Kurdish and Shiite parties — keeping the Pentagon and Republican
right happy — while ensuring that the Iraqi top brass also plays a key
role.
The outstanding bone of contention between the Pentagon and state department-CIA
factions is over whether an attack can be launched against Iraq without
the cooperation — or at least the acquiescence — of Washington's Arab allies.
The course of this debate may affect the timing of the US war on Iraq.
The state department argues that regional cooperation is essential and
that a war cannot be launched until the Palestinian intifada is
ended. It also fears that an attack on Iraq, coming on top of Washington's
open support for Israel's all-out assault on the Palestinian people, may
provoke mass uprisings that endanger the survival of key pro-US Arab regimes.
The DoD and the Bush administration's right-wing supporters insist that
the attack on Iraq should go forward irrespective of the situation in Palestine.
They deride the threat that the “Arab street” poses to “moderate” Arab
regimes and argue that these regimes will cooperate with Washington's war
plans because, when push comes to shove, they will side with US military
might against their own people.
War criminal
According to a report in the March 11 Boston
Globe, Nizar al Khazraji,
who was chief of staff of Iraq's armed forces between 1987 and 1991 and
now in exile in Denmark, is the state department-CIA faction's preferred
candidate to be replace Hussein.
The CIA lured Khazraji to defect with the promise a major political
role in a post-Hussein Iraq. He is reported to have been involved in at
least one CIA-backed coup attempt against Hussein.
Khazraji is the highest ranking officer from Hussein's military to have
defected. Washington believes he still has strong support within the army
hierarchy.
Khazraji's hands are drenched in blood. He was head of Iraq's armed
forces in the last years of the brutal 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, throughout
Baghdad's vicious military pogroms against the Kurdish minority in the
north in 1988-89 and he led the 1990-91 invasion of Kuwait.
Under Khazraji's command, the Iraqi army used poison gas in attacks
on Iraqi Kurds and Iranian soldiers on at least 10 occasions between August
1983 and March 1988. The number of victims of these attacks has been estimated
to be at least 30,000.
In the most notorious atrocity, on March 16, 1988, Iraqi military helicopters
attacked the Iraqi Kurdish village of Halabja with cyanide and mustard
gas, indiscriminately killing more than 5000 people, including many children.
Many thousands more subsequently died from their injuries.
The attack on Halabja was part of broader military pogrom against Iraqi
Kurds, known as the Anfal operation. In just over six months, the
Iraqi armed forces killed tens of thousands of people. More than 2000 villages
were destroyed. The fate of more than 180,000 Kurds remains unknown.
Denmark's state prosecutor is investigating Khazraji for war crimes
after more than 90 Kurdish organisations around the world demanded that
action be taken against him.
The US remained silent about these atrocities at the time because it
was complicit in them. It supplied Iraq with its weaponry and approved
the sale of the chemicals from which Iraq's poison gas was manufactured.
As a 1990 report prepared for the Pentagon by the Strategic Studies
Institute of the US War College explained: “Throughout the [Iran-Iraq]
war the United States practised a fairly benign policy toward Iraq... Both
wanted to restore the status quo ante ... that prevailed before
[the 1979 Iranian revolution] began threatening the regional balance of
power. Khomeini's revolutionary appeal was anathema to both Baghdad and
Washington; hence they wanted to get rid of him. United by a common interest
... the [US] began to actively assist Iraq.”
After the Iran-Iraq war ended — leaving Iraq as the most powerful state
in the Persian Gulf region — the US turned on its erstwhile “ally”, suddenly
“discovering” that Hussein had “gassed his own people”.
US and British officials are also cultivating 55 other exiled Iraqi
officers, including Wafiq Sammarai, a former chief of military intelligence
who left Iraq in 1994, and Najib Salhi, a former army and Republican Guard
commander who fled in 1995. US agents meet with these figures “pretty regularly”,
a state department official told the Globe.
According to a December 18 United Press International report, the state
department, under the cover of the right-wing Middle East Institute think
tank, organised a seminar in Washington that attracted representatives
of three Iraqi military exile groups — the Iraqi National Accord, the Free
Officers Movement and the Iraqi Officers Movement. The meeting was attended
by five US officials and representatives of the two Kurdish parties that
rule the US protectorate in northern Iraq.
The March 13 British Guardian reported that a “grand opposition
conference has been provisionally scheduled for May, and it is hoped to
hold it in Bonn, symbolically echoing the Bonn meeting that set up the
Afghan interim government”. The aim of the meeting of 400 or so exiles
would be to agree “on a new leader to replace Saddam Hussein”.
On March 16, the Boston Globe reported that “State Department
officials say the meeting arises from their efforts to recruit the support
of former military officers... The [US] hopes to exploit the officers'
connections with the Republican Guard and Iraqi Army that have served as
the cornerstone of Hussein's rule and helped him quash popular uprisings.”
A state department official admitted to the Globe that allegations
of war crimes against Khazraji presented difficulties for Washington, “But
there are few people who can claim to have had his rank, his influence
and his power inside Iraq”.
From Green Left Weekly, May 8, 2002.
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