BY OREN YIFTACHEL
On February 6, Israel elected its first settler prime minister. Premier-elect
Ariel Sharon, who gave his negotiators 10 days to forge a “national unity”
government with Labour, maintains an official residence in Old Jerusalem's
Muslim quarter. In a landslide victory, Sharon received 62.5% of the vote,
forcing Ehud Barak to resign from Labour's leadership.
Barak could not overcome the contradictions inherent in his governing
strategy of wooing the Israeli “left” with seriously flawed “peace plans”,
while simultaneously ordering the Israel Defence Forces to violently crush
the ongoing Palestinian uprising in the Occupied Territories.
Under Sharon, whose constituency opposes any movement at all on the
key issues of borders, settlements, refugees right of return and Jerusalem,
the contradictions of Israel's occupation of Palestinian lands will become
sharper. The Clinton “bridging proposals” of December and the 11th-hour
round of talks were attempts to revive the skewed Oslo “peace process”
which the Palestinian street has so clearly rejected. Barak's defeat may
signal the death of the Oslo framework, and the gradual consolidation of
today's creeping apartheid in the West Bank and Gaza.
Orwellian
For the first time, Israelis voted in a direct election for prime minister
without a parallel parliamentary election. The resulting, highly personalised
campaign produced strange, Orwellian images. Sharon, the notorious invader
of Lebanon, who has supported none of the peace plans or accords in Israel's
history, was portrayed on billboards, TV ads, bumper stickers and direct
mail as “a leader for peace”. The Likud party slogan repeated during the
early days of the intifada, “Let the IDF win”, metamorphosed during the
campaign into “Only Sharon will bring peace”.
Sharon's TV ads showed him as both a war hero and a gentle grandfather,
hugging little children and walking in blooming fields, accompanied by
soft violins.
The designers of Barak's campaign tried hard to uncover the “real Sharon”
— drawing attention to his role in the disastrous Lebanon war, including
the massacre of hundreds of Palestinian civilians at Sabra and Shatila
— but with little apparent success.
Since November, polls showed Sharon commanding a huge lead over Barak.
But the Likud leader's impressive electoral victory was far from democratic.
Only 59% of the electorate — the lowest turnout in Israel's history — participated
in the election. Three per cent of those who voted cast invalid blank protest
ballots, meaning that Sharon received the support of only some 35% of eligible
voters.
Due to a widespread election boycott, only 18% of the Palestinian Arab
citizens of Israel cast a vote, with extremely low participation in most
non-Druze localities.
Significantly, despite the focus of these elections being on the future
of the Occupied Territories, the three million Palestinians residing under
the direct or indirect control of the Israeli government did not have the
right to vote. At the same time, the nearly 400,000 Jewish settlers living
in the same areas were given full voting rights.
Highlighting this irony were pictures on national TV of Judge Michael
Kheshin, chairperson of the Israeli elections committee, delivering ballot
boxes to a West Bank settlement in an armoured vehicle, and commenting
for the cameras: “This is a day of celebration for our democracy.”
Palestinian Israelis
Barak lost so badly because all three of the constituencies that supported
him in 1999 — Palestinian citizens of Israel, the Jewish left and the political
centre — have been gravely disappointed by his premiership. His difficulties
in office illustrate the deep crisis of the Israeli state, which portrays
itself as democratic and enlightened while maintaining violent colonial
control of the Palestinians.
Twenty months ago, Barak received 95% of the Palestinian vote. But he
never negotiated with Arab leaders about forming a coalition, nor did he
share any significant decision-making with the Arab parties. Palestinian
citizens perceived his insistence on being “elected by a Jewish majority”
as patronising and racist.
The sustained violent response of the Barak government to the current
intifada, and the violent police reaction to October's mass demonstrations
in Palestinian towns, in which 13 Palestinian Israeli citizens (and one
Jew) were killed, angered the Arabs to the point of vowing never to vote
for Barak.
By staying away from the polls, or casting a blank ballot, Israel's
Palestinian Arab citizens displayed an increasingly clear agenda of a national
minority in conflict with the state. Some even called it “the independence
day of the Arabs in Israel”.
Clearly, no left-wing Israeli candidate can now take the Arab vote for
granted. Palestinians in Israel also showed independence from figures in
the Palestinian national movement, like Yasser Abed Rabbo and Nayef Hawatmeh,
who called for support for Barak.
On the day following the elections, political leaders from both left
and right, such as Meretz leader Yossi Sarid and Likud's Moshe Katzav,
expressed their “deep resentment” of the Arab mass abstention. Sarid even
claimed that boycotters “betrayed” the cause of peace. Such allegations
may spell increasing tensions between Israel's Palestinian and Jewish citizens,
perhaps emboldening right-wing Jewish leaders to sharpen discriminatory
policies against Arab citizens.
Barak lost many of his supporters from the political “centre”, as a
result of his persistent statements that Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation
entails major compromises, far beyond the previous “red lines” of any Zionist
party. These voters — the largest group that deserted him — bemoaned the
“loss of sacred national values” such as a “united Jerusalem” and the “the
irreparable decline” in Israel's deterrence ability.
Barak also lost votes among the Jewish left, who were shocked by the
outbreak of the second intifada. The Oslo accords of 1993, which have yet
to be implemented, and the US-backed “peace process” allowed most Israelis
to remain in a “Jewish bubble”, deaf and blind to the needs and aspirations
of the Palestinians.
Most Israelis were apathetic toward, or even supportive of, Israel's
closures of the West Bank and Gaza, land seizures and the ongoing construction
of Jewish settlements and bypass roads. They simply didn't see the intensifying
frustration of the Palestinians at Israel's refusal to implement the pledged
withdrawal from most of the Occupied Territories.
For “left-wing” Israelis, there was no direct explanation for a rebellion
under the Barak government, and they were horrified by scenes like the
Ramallah “lynching”. Despite the obvious asymmetry of power on display
throughout the intifada, this large slice of the Israeli electorate — who
associated the flawed Oslo process with Israel's willingness to compromise
— lost their trust in Yasser Arafat and the Palestinians as “peace partners”,
and hence decided to dump Barak.
It is indicative of the crisis of the Israeli state that no government
advancing toward peace (even in rhetoric only, as with Barak's) has survived
its term in office.
National unity
On February 9, Barak, in the company of Labour leaders Shimon Peres and
Avraham Burg, commenced negotiations with Sharon over conditions for a
coalition government for the third time since the intifada began. This
time Sharon set the terms.
Sharon's pursuit of Labour for a “national unity” government may be
genuine. He wants to hinder a possible revival of Labour and the expected
challenge from Binyamin Netanyahu in the general elections he would have
to call if he were unable to form a government.
“National unity” — which is fully endorsed by key actors like Shas and
the Russian parties — is exclusively Jewish, needless to say, and hence
is not likely to create conditions for regional stability.
Since Sharon has stated that he will govern with a narrow right-wing
coalition if “national unity” talks fail, Labour may justify cooperation
with Sharon as “saving Israel from an extreme right-wing government”. But
doing so would invite a serious internal rift. Leading Labour personalities
like Yossi Beilin and Yael Dayan are already plugging an agenda of building
a social democratic party in opposition to “national unity”, in a putative
confederation with secular Meretz and several Arab factions. In a “national
unity” government, Labour figures who still dream of capturing Arab votes
would sit side by side with Rehavam Ze'evi of Moledet, who has advocated
“transferring” Palestinian citizens out of Israel.
Apartheid
The twin prospects of “national unity” or a right-wing government make
little difference to the Palestinians. Both types of coalition will probably
support Sharon's moves to “strengthen Jerusalem”, consolidate the settlements
and move toward “separation” from the Palestinians, on the basis of dividing
the West Bank between Jews and Palestinians.
Even if Sharon moves to evacuate small settlements, as may well happen,
his “peace plan” will translate into an undeclared apartheid. The continuing
guerilla and civil resistance by Palestinians will probably not be sufficient
to prevent unilateral implementation of Sharon's plans, at least in the
short term.
In response, the Israeli and Palestinian peace camps will have to debate
the relative merits of two main strategies. They may work to reverse the
deepening occupation and pursue a two-state solution, based on UN resolution
242 and the evacuation of settlements. This would include the implementation
of the Palestinian refugees' right of return mainly within the sites of
settlements evacuated by Israel.
Alternatively, the peace camps may adopt a local and international campaign
for equal Palestinian citizenship and political rights in a binational
political framework.
These strategies necessitate new and innovative forms of Jewish-Palestinian
cooperation, and possibly the emergence of a new generation of leaders,
working towards creating binational frameworks and reinstating the mutual
trust fatally wounded in the brief but volatile Barak-Arafat period. Neither
of these strategies promises to succeed in the near future, but given the
current state of crisis and fluidity, almost any political future is possible
in Israel/Palestine.
[Oren Yiftachel teaches political geography at Ben Gurion University
in Beer-Sheva, Israel. Abridged from Middle East Research and Information
Project press information note. Visit the MERIP web site at http://www.merip.org/.]